It’s been a wild past 6 months for the Southern Tier with extreme drought Jan-March then record rains Apr-May which essentially wiped out the TX/OK drought but then came a very dry June-Aug which brought the return to extreme drought. Then it turned around again during the 2nd half of October and following a series of major rain events. the renewed summer drought is wiped yet again.

After an abnormally dry summer, the Carolinas too found themselves largely covered by moderate to severe drought conditions but an extreme multisystem rain event dumped 24 inches within 5 days followed by a series of other smaller rain events. Drought conditions are all but gone from the Carolinas.

Texas got hit by a similar multisystem scenario where tropical and non-tropical entities came together to produce epic rainfall. Up to 20 inches of rain fell in 2 days for some locales in Texas.

Since then, Texas has seemingly been hit with flooding rains every weekend as upper lows swing out of the Four Corners and tap Gulf moisture.

[s2If current_user_can(access_s2member_level1)]

Rainfall totals (inches) for the last 30 days. Following the Carolinas, the focus has been on Texas.

Percentage of normal.

Check out the decrease in drought conditions, particularly Texas and the Carolinas since Sep 1.

Sep 1

Nov 3

As you can see from the above, drought conditions are no longer for both North and South Carolina.

Before

After

Below is the Texas before and after the recent ‘deluge series’.

Soil moisture content dramatically increased.

The first half of this workweek looks to be another very soggy one for the Carolinas, especially the coastal Plain as a Gulf system lifts NE over the Southeast.

Radar shows overrunning moisture streaming ahead of the Gulf low.

GFS surface shows the system pushing from Gulf to off Hatteras early to mid week. Note another wind, rain and snow maker dropping into the West. Fresh snow for the Sierra Nevada!

Up to 3 inches may fall widely, locally 6 with flooding issues once again.

The new system pushing into the West early week looks to wind up pretty good mid to late week over the Plains.

Marginal risk for severe weather for Wednesday.

Damaging wind, rain (possibly snow) and severe weather is all a possibility.

Late fall and winter is typically wet during El Ninos, especially when the Gulf and Atlantic is warmer than normal.

Rainfall is plentiful next 10 days.

CFSv2 has a very wet November overall for the Southeast.

The drought is far less severe than it has been but the still drier than normal conditions over Florida and surrounding warmer than normal water has likely played a role in the record hot open to November.

From weather.com

Florida Heat Wave Set Numerous November Records

Published Nov 7 2015 02:10 PM EST

November may have a cold reputation in some places, but much of Florida sweat through a heat wave that rewrote November’s record books.

This past week, the following locations set or tied records for the month of November:

• Daytona Beach: 90 degrees on Nov. 2 (records date to 1923)
• Gainesville: 91 degrees on Nov. 3 (previous record was set in the Dust Bowl of 1936; records date to 1890)
• Jacksonville: 89 degrees on both Nov. 1 and Nov. 3 (records date to 1871)
• Key West: Low of 81 degrees Nov. 1 and 2 was warmest daily low on record in November (records date to 1871)
• Melbourne: Low of 78 degrees Nov. 5 and 6 was warmest daily low on record in November (records date to 1939)
• Naples: 92 degrees on Nov. 4 ties the previous record from 1946 (records date to 1942)
• Tallahassee: 88 degrees Nov. 1, then 89 degrees on Nov. 3 and 4; also tied record warmest daily low temperature of 75 degrees on Nov. 2 (records date to 1896)
• Tampa: 92 degrees on Nov. 4 (records date to 1890); also, their record latest-in-the-year 90s on record Nov. 6
• Vero Beach: Low of 79 degrees Nov. 4 was warmest daily low on record in November (records date to 1942)

In Tampa, 90-degree heat is typical from mid-June through August. Early November average highs, there, are around 80 degrees. As of Nov. 6, Tampa had reached 90 degrees in three consecutive days, while setting daily record highs four days in a row.

In fact, the hottest temperature anywhere in the U.S. on Nov. 4, often found in the Desert Southwest or South Texas in early November, was at Cross City, Ft. Myers, Naples and Tampa, each soaring to 92 degrees.

November started impressively warm at Tallahassee, where the first four days of the month marked the warmest four-day stretch in November ever recorded in Tallahassee (80.9 degrees), by a whole four degrees.

Florida’s capital city has reached 88 degrees five of the first six days of the month. A high of 88 degrees had only happened on three previous November days in Tallahassee dating to 1896, according to the National Weather Service.

Of course, it wasn’t just the heat, but also the humidity.

Typically, beginning in late fall, a succession of cold fronts sweeps southeastward through the Sunshine State, clearing out summer’s oppressive humidity.

Dew points, a measure of how much moisture is in the air, were stuck in the low-mid 70s during this heat wave, sending heat indices well into the 90s, particularly in South Florida.

This was great weather if you’re working on your tan or cooling off in the pool, but pretty miserable if you were, say, in a long line at a theme park.

“It is getting old waiting for Fall to begin in November,” said hurricane specialist Eric Blake, based at the National Hurricane Center in Coral Gables, Florida.

Blake says a lower sun angle and a bit cooler temperatures makes the current warm spell in South Florida better than summer, but not by much. “This is the time of the year that (it) usually pays to live in Florida.”

This muggy air – yes, we’re using the word muggy in November – also held morning lows in record warm territory.

Key West finally dipped below 80 degrees on the night of November 5 for the first time since October 30, thanks to a brief shower. They had set record daily warm low temperatures each day, according to Weather Underground weather historian Christopher Burt. No rest for the A/C at night during this heat wave.

One of Florida’s Hottest Years

This recent November heat wave is only the latest chapter in what has been one of the hottest years on record in the Sunshine State.

The first nine months of 2015 were the second warmest such period in records dating to 1895, according to a NOAA/NCEI report.

If it wasn’t for a cold February, 2015 would be in first place already. April through September was Florida’s record hottest such “warm season”.

According to the Southeast Regional Climate Center, the following Florida cities with periods of record of at least 70 years have had one of their top three warmest years-to-date through November 3:

• Record warmest: Fort Lauderdale, Miami, Moore Haven, St. Petersburg
• Second warmest: Apalachicola, Orlando, Tallahassee, Vero Beach
• Third warmest: Key West, Tampa, West Palm Beach

See the video for more on the longer range.

[/s2If][s2If current_user_cannot(access_s2member_level1)][magicactionbox id=”18716″][/s2If]