There’s strong cross model agreement on this Western trough, eastern ridge pattern anchoring itself over the US through Nov 20th at least. This means systems will frequently push in off the Pacific bringing wind, rain and snow. Much needed moisture for so many! Texas and the Southern Plains into the Mid-South on the other hand don’t need anymore rain. However this setup supports further heavy rain and flooding episodes as well as severe weather. The ridge looks to remain strong enough over the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys for lows to drop into Texas and get lifted up into the Great Lakes.

November so far.

Month has only begun but looks a lot like November 09.

Based on forecast projection, it may wind up closer to November 82.

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Both GFS ensemble and EPS control holds this setup pretty much throughout the 0-15 day period.

EPS control

CFSv2

A pattern which supports plenty more snow over the next 10 days.

As of now, while heat records fall across the East, snow is being measured in FEET Out West.

This was the scene in northern Nevada this morning.

Story for weather.com

Florida Heat Wave Is Setting November Records

November may have a cold reputation in some places, but much of Florida is sweating through a heat wave that is rewriting the November record books.

This week, the following locations have already set or tied record highs for the month of November:

• Tampa: 91 degrees on Nov. 4 as of 3 p.m. EDT
• Daytona Beach: 90 degrees on Nov. 2
• Gainesville: 91 degrees on Nov. 3 (previous record was set in the Dust Bowl of 1936)
• Jacksonville: 89 degrees on both Nov. 1 and Nov. 3
• Tallahassee: 88 degrees Nov. 1, then 89 degrees on Nov. 3; also tied record warmest daily low temperature of 75 degrees on Nov. 2

In Daytona Beach, 90-degree heat is typical from July through mid-August. Early November average highs, there, are in the upper 70s.

In fact, the hottest temperature anywhere in the U.S. on Nov. 3, often found in the Desert Southwest or South Texas this time of year, was at Jacksonville’s Naval Air Station, soaring to 93 degrees.

Of course, it’s not just the heat, but also the humidity.

Typically, beginning in late fall, a succession of cold fronts sweeps southeastward through the Sunshine State, clearing out summer’s oppressive humidity.

So far this month, that certainly hasn’t happened.

(MORE: Sinkhole Opens in Seffler, Florida)

Dew points, a measure of how much moisture is in the air, have been stuck in the low-mid-70s the past few days, sending heat indices well into the 90s, particularly in South Florida.

This is great weather if you’re working on your tan or cooling off in the pool, but pretty miserable if you’re in a long line at a theme park.

“It is getting old waiting for Fall to begin in November,” said hurricane specialist Eric Blake, based at the National Hurricane Center in Coral Gables, Florida.

Blake says a lower sun angle and a bit cooler temperatures makes the current warm spell in South Florida better than summer, but not by much. “This is the time of the year that (it) usually pays to live in Florida.”

This muggy air – yes, we’re using the word muggy in November – is also helping to hold morning lows in record warm territory.

Key West is struggling just to dip below 80 degrees. In fact, they had yet to do so in November, as of Wednesday morning. No rest for the A/C at night during this heat wave.

Is there any break in the heat?

Relief Ahead

The culprit for this Florida record November heat is a persistent area of high pressure in the upper atmosphere parked from the Bermuda Triangle into the eastern Gulf of Mexico.

Conversely, the jet stream has been diverted well north into eastern Canada and northern New England, keeping any cold fronts away from the Sunshine State.

That upper-level high will remain in place, before giving way later this weekend, allowing a front to finally sag southward into Florida early next week.

(FORECAST: Midwest/Northeast Fall Reality Check)

In the meantime, the heat and humidity will persist the next few days, but high temperatures should top out a couple of degrees less hot than the records we’ve seen earlier.

The real relief should arrive by Sunday, with highs mainly in the 70s in north Florida, and low 80s in central Florida, including Orlando and Tampa, with somewhat lower humidity.

South Florida and the Florida Keys should get a breather by Monday, with highs “only” in the low-mid 80s.

The good news, here, is this sagging front will only take the top off the current heat wave and produce little in the way of thunderstorms.

In fact, temperatures should remain near or just above average into next week.

NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center maintains the warmth in the Sunshine State, and much of the East, into mid-November, based on its latest 8-14 day outlook.

One of Florida’s Hottest Years

This recent November heat wave is only the latest chapter in what has been one of the hottest years on record in the Sunshine State.

The first nine months of 2015 were the third warmest such period in records dating to 1895, according to a NOAA/NCEI report in September.

If it wasn’t for a cold February, 2015 would be in first place already. April through September was Florida’s record hottest such “warm season”.

According to the Southeast Regional Climate Center, the following Florida cities with periods of record of at least 70 years have had one of their top three warmest years-to-date through November 3:

• Record warmest: Fort Lauderdale, Miami, Moore Haven, St. Petersburg
• Second warmest: Apalachicola, Orlando, Tallahassee, Vero Beach
• Third warmest: Key West, Tampa, West Palm Beach

Interestingly, long-range forecasts from both The Weather Channel and NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center suggest the winter months may be colder than average in the Sunshine State, due in part to a strong El Niño.

Fortunately, if you have a vacation planned or are a Florida resident, don’t sweat the weather details. There is no sustained bout of colder weather that we can see in the cards at least for the next couple of weeks

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