Too much of a good thing! Drought conditions have continued to worsen throughout the Caribbean this summer but Erika has moved in and all but swamped the island of Dominica as she continues her WNW towards the Bahamas as a 50 mph storm.
There’s video of a building collapsing under the power of raging flood waters.


Meteo France
Canefield Airport on the island reported nearly 9 inches of rain within just 6 hours.

Via Anthony Sagliani
This was the scene from Dominica this morning.

Credit: Steve-O @Damian_0423

Credit: Steve-O @Damian_0423

Credit: Steve-O @Damian_0423
The concern from here on is that there’s a classic upper air pattern developing over North America. One which has seen MANY major landfalls on the US coast beneath a blossoming upper ridge over the Great Lakes and eastern Canada.
Waters are warm beneath Erika now but they are even warmer and shear will be less where her intended path is taking her!

Credit: Tropical Tidbits
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Major height rises over the Great Lakes and into eastern Canada this weekend with the storm sliding in underneath and into an increasingly favourable environment. This suggests to me that Florida and indeed the US’s luck may be about to run out.

Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Credit: Tropical Tidbits
There hasn’t been a major US landfalling hurricane in nearly 10 years but this setup appears to be all coming together.
Latest model spray

Credit: Tropical Tidbits
Latest surface plot.

Credit: Tropical Tidbits
NHC track forecast

GFDL goes crazy!

Credit: Tropical Tidbits
Latest HWRF has Erika strengthening along the Space coast Monday into Tuesday.

Credit: Tropical Tidbits
Video will be available later this evening. Stay tuned!
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