It was another hot day under a blazing August sun yesterday. Paris topped 33C while it soared to 38C in Bucharest.

However, it’s all eyes on what’s lifting out of the Bay of Biscay, a system born over the warm waters, fuelled by Mediterranean warmth and humidity shall lift north over northern France into the southern UK today.

It’s been an electrifying start to Thursday over the near continent.

Stunning lightning show over Normandy, France last night. Photographed by Thibault Cormier.

Torrential downpours flooded the streets of Rouen, France earlier this morning.

Storms are now crossing the channel.

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The warm, humid lower atmosphere capped by fairly cold mid and upper levels sets the stage for rapid upward motion and therefore the development of pretty intense thunderstorms. The air will feel distinctly muggy as this energy lifts north bringing heavy and possibly persistent rain over NORTH-SOUTH swathes of England and eventually the heavy, persistent rain spreads up into Scotland later today into tomorrow where thunder, lightning, hail and gusty winds are all possible.

One must watch for these storm clouds clustering, bringing a persistent spell of torrential rain. This raises the possibility of flooding or worst case flash flooding in low lying areas.

Here’s a look at the GFS surface and note the very heavy precip bands surrounding the low.

Pattern Settling Down Into Late August, September?

The good news is, these storms clear out our atmosphere Friday into Saturday with high pressure moving in. This high will provide us with much welcome bright or sunny skies and with light winds, it feels pleasantly warm. Clear skies by night however will make for a chill with possibility of rural frost.

As for next week, while fronts will be around, a building Scandinavian high looks to at least attempt to push back inbound Atlantic fronts. This may allow for a much more stable pattern as we head for late month and enter September.

The below GFS charts show the settling down of the pattern. Hopefully this is a sign of things to come.

The CFSv2 weeklies sure look promising.

See this morning’s video for the discussion.

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