Here’s the CFSv2 precipitation and temperature for Sep/Oct.

Interesting to see how the CFSv2 takes the wetter than normal east into the Southeast as we enter the heart of fall. Temperature wise, I think there’s a good deal of warm, settled and tranquil weather for a large portion of the country, possibly remaining on the hot side for the Southeast and Northwest, California where it’s dry.

Here’s the Jamstec for fall. Note it’s pretty cool.

As for winter, the latest run removes a lot of the warmth it’s had, looking more promising for winter lovers in the East.

Here’s the CFSv2 for Dec-Feb. It’s going for 1997-98 while the Jamstec is suggesting more 2009-10.

This is a strong El Nino but may not act like one over the US. Why? because we’ve possibly never seen as warm of a PDO coupled with strong El Nino before and that warmth in the NE Pacific may counterbalance the pattern. A fight between warm and cool perhaps?

See the video for more!

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