With the undisputed help of a cold Atlantic has supported a cool summer for Ireland and UK while the strong El Nino and warm Mediterranean has led to a hot, dry summer for much of the continental mainland.
A persistent trough extending from Iceland to UK has forced a cooler than normal June, July and likely August period and with high amplification of this pattern, a stronger than normal ridge coupled with surrounding warm water and dry ground has led to a well above normal June, July and now August for most of the mainland but particularly central and eastern areas where monthly and all-time records have been set in each of the summer months.
As well as cool, summer 2015 has also been wet for the UK and Ireland, largely down to the El Nino as well as a stronger than normal jet stream. It’s been stronger and further south than normal due to the sharp thermal gradient in Atlantic SSTA’s. Waters are 1-3C below normal against the Irish coast while they are 1-3C above normal against the Portugese coast.
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Dry ground and warm water has led to stronger heights while they’ve been lower than normal between Scotland and Iceland and the UK has been stuck under the stuck boundary separating these two very different air masses.
The Southeast of England has been largely under the European high and so summer here has been decent and at times very warm but Scotland and Northern Ireland has been largely under the influence of a trough.
This summer will likely to go down as one of the coolest and wettest in the last 20-30 years with June and July winding up wetter and cooler than normal. August is highly likely to finalise proceedings.
Ever since the blistering open to July for the UK and particularly Spain and France, the core of heat has been focused over central and now eastern Europe with all-time August records broken in just the past 5 days.
From AccuWeather
Warsaw set a new all-time August high temperature record on Saturday when the temperature peaked at 36.6 C (97.9 F). The previous record was 36.4 C (97.5 F) from August 1994, according to AccuWeather Meteorologist Tyler Roys.
The temperature surpassed at 32 C (90 F) on Tuesday, marking the eighth straight day of temperatures reaching that threshold. A weak cold front approaching from the north may keep temperatures below 32 C (90 F) on Thursday; however, the intense heat will return from Friday into the weekend.
While most summers feature at least a few days of 32 C (90 F) heat in Warsaw, this summer has been extreme with 11 days achieving such a feat through Aug. 11. Since 1994, the only other occurrences of at least seven consecutive days of such heat were July into August of 1994 and July of 2006.
From Capital Weather Gang
The heat wave commenced late last week. On Friday, Weather Underground meteorologist Bob Henson reported Berlin was among more than 100 towns and cities in Germany that tied or broke all-time record highs. Berlin hit 102 degrees (38.9 Celsius) breaking its previous hottest temperature of 101.5 degrees (38.6 Celsius).
Credit: WeatherBell
From Bloomberg Business
Heatwave Forces First Polish Power Supply Curbs Since 1980s
Poland’s power grid cut electricity supplies for industrial users for the first time in almost three decades as a heatwave entered its second week.
The reduction started at 10 a.m. in Warsaw as power prices for next week jumped to the highest level since December 2010 and spot electricity to a record. While households are not affected by the cuts, according to Prime Minister Ewa Kopacz, the government will on Tuesday discuss extending the period of lower supplies to companies until Aug. 30, Economy Minister Janusz Piechocinski told reporters on Monday.
“Unrelenting heat” will continue to affect much of east Europe this week after temperatures surged to August records in Poland last weekend, according to AccuWeather Inc. The weather conditions are cutting power production and hampering electricity transmission as low river levels result in cooling restrictions, while higher demand for air-conditioning squeezes the reserve margins required by the system.
Premier Kopacz, whose Civic Platform party is trailing in opinion polls before October’s general election, said Poles had “no reason to panic” even as about 1,600 companies faced cuts in electricity supplies.
‘Boiling’ River
KGHM SA, Poland’s sole copper producer, said it will use its own power sources amid the restrictions, while Grupa Lotos SA said it would maintain “normal” oil-refinery operations for now. ArcelorMittal, the world’s largest steelmaker, is cutting output at its Polish smelters because of the electricity curbs, PAP news agency reported on Monday.
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Power plants owned by Enea SA and GDF Suez SA, which use water from the Vistula river to cool their facilities, face curbs in dumping the heated water back into the country’s largest internal waterway, Piechocinski said.
“We can’t let the river boil, it’s dangerous for the environment,” he said.
With some 4,000 megawatts of capacity missing from the system due to maintenance and cooling issues on Sunday and scarce wind output, power grid manager introduced supply cuts reducing demand by about 2,000 megawatts, Henryk Majchrzak, Chief Executive Officer of power grid operator PSE SA said. Remedial measures include intervention imports from neighboring countries and delays in planned power plant maintenance.
Surging Prices
The temperature in Warsaw stood at 32 degrees Celsius at 4 p.m. and was poised to rise as high as 35.4 degrees on Saturday, according to CustomWeather Inc. data on Bloomberg. It soared to 36.6 degrees Celsius on Aug. 8, a record for August, AccuWeather said on its website.
Polish week-ahead power surged 22 percent to 225 zlotys ($58.77) a megawatt-hour by 4:30 p.m. Warsaw time, broker data compiled by Bloomberg showed. The contract gained 9.5 percent in the previous session as utility Enea said cooling restrictions forced its Kozienice power plant to cut output by some 400 megawatts. Day-ahead power traded on Polish power exchange increased 70 percent to a record 464.95 zloty a megawatt-hour, exchange data on Bloomberg show.
“Assuming the heat persists, prices may keep rising unless wind generation increases,” Bartlomiej Kubicki, a Warsaw-based analyst at Societe Generale SA, said Monday by e-mail.
Under Polish regulations, electricity supply for industrial users can be restricted if other remedial measures are inadequate to keep power flows at required levels.
https://youtu.be/ExgdsxEBlLc
Is there hope in sight?
We approaching the transitionary period when the jet typically reaches it’s most northerly position (this year that doesn’t count) as into September, the cooling over the high latitudes begins to migrate gradually southward. The jet tends to strengthen etc etc.
However, these often cool and wet summers can lead to a different feedback response and often when June through August is cool and wet, there are examples of drier and somewhat warmer Septembers. There are hints that as we head towards the late August, early September period that a warmer, drier trend may move into the UK and Ireland from off the continent. Models show a Scandinavian blocking high developing and expanding westward. This may help push back the persistent trough.
Until then, expect showers and storms gather and spread north through France into the UK late this week. These could be strong with flash flood potential.
Next week? It’s looking not too bad with less rain, better and more settled conditions through till Wednesday.
See this morning’s video for the discussion.
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