I am making more and more mention about this El Nino because it may become a major global player this summer into next winter. We’ve not had a strong nino in the last decade and a half and there’s increasing evidence suggesting that this could become strong. The PDO is very warm currently and thus this year’s PDO state may have the ability in support the strongest nino since 97-98.
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While we’ve been here before, several times shouting ‘super nino’ from what I’m seeing, the Pacific hasn’t been as warm and with strong westerly bursts and kelvin waves warming the eastern equatorial waters, there’s more reason to believe the strong nino idea this time around.
E equat Pacific more El Nino-like this year compared to last year.
Influence is strongest in areas surrounding the Pacific over SE Asia and the Americas but Europe also sees effect as the global weather pattern is altered thanks to the enormous heat release from ocean to atmosphere.
Latest IRI projections show a moderate to strong El Nino by late summer into fall.
There was a weak El Nino last year but eastern tropical Pacific upper ocean heat content is 0.3C warmer now compared to last year.
Michael Ventrice of WSI Energy shows that the thermocline is deepest EAST of the date line as a massive downwelling oceanic kelvin wave surfaces.
Latest CFSv2 3-month sea surface temperature projections.
The El Nino-like atmosphere is already showing surrounding the Pacific with drought already showing over parts of Asia while flooding is effecting South and North America while drier than normal conditions are affecting us here in Western Europe. As the warming progresses and waters start warming around us, I suspect a sharp increase in rainfall May-June but we shall have to see.
Rainfall anomalies for the last 30 days.
Credit: NOAA
IF and it’s a big if, we get a moderate by summer and to possibly strong El Nino later this year, implications could be major with drought over Australia and tropical-maritime Asia and flooding for not just South America into Central America but also California, Southwest and South US.
I expect a wetter pattern for the UK/Ireland into western mainland Europe this summer.
This could be the dramatic turnaround California needs but unfortunately these events are too much too quick.
I suspect a warmer winter would result for the US along with Western Europe but this is speculation this far out.
See video for more.
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