It’s a well known fact that the sun is the primary driver of earth’s climate, oceans are second. Back at the last solar minimum, we experienced the great winter of 2009-10 and 2010-11. Then came the maximum of solar cycle 24 which peaked back in Feb-Mar last year. This resulted in a prolonged period of warmer than normal weather for Europe both in summer (2013-2014) and winter (2013-14, 2014-15). That cycle which happens to be the weakest since 1798 is now heading back towards a minimum and the bridge between cycle 24-25.

So, look for a cooling trend and one which may come during the upcoming summer or winter.

While I have a great deal of uncertainly over winter 2015-16, I believe we should return to a colder state within the next 3-5 years as we head for the minimum which should result in a winter comparable to 2009-10 and those of the late 1970s.

The PDO is currently warm but should return to a cold phase within the next 18 months while the Atlantic should go back warm after spending the last 2 winters in a cold state. The commencement to the typical 30 year cycle swing back to cold may or may not have began, that I’m not sure of. Certainly around the time of the previous minimum solar minimum, the Atlantic was very warm, hence the record strong blocking over Greenland. I think the AMO flips permanently just AFTER the next minimum which is expected around 2020 according to NASA projections (above). When it does and both oceans are colder than normal, watch for a sharp temperature drop globally.

Lower solar favours increased high latitude blocking but because of the warm PDO/cold AMO possible into next winter, I fear another ‘average winter’ at best is likely for Western Europe but there will be other factors to consider.

Tags: solar cycle 24, solar maximum, solar minimum, sunspot cycle