While a system pushes cooler, wetter weather into California and Southwest which sets up a significant severe weather threat Thursday, some longer range models try to bring back western warmth, eastern cool.

Here’s the latest CFSv2 weeklies which quickly brings the return of the western ridge extending up into Alaska again while more cooler air mass descend upon the central and eastern US. It’s like the atmosphere cannot recast due to persistent, dominant feedback from warm water up the West Coast and the drought.

Why this pattern keeps on coming back…

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Paul Pastelok of AccuWeather alluded to the strat warming at 10mb crossing the pole and possible influence through the second half of April.

Certainly the above CFSv2 could reflect that and this could supress warmth trying to build into the East.

A cooler pattern with abnormally warm water in the Gulf of Mexico could lead to significant rainfall across the Southern United States and that may feedback to a cooler, wetter summer.

Check out just how warm those waters are. Systems crossing west-east or out of the north, will tap this and will see enhanced rainfall as a result.

QPF suggests quite the deluge from the Corn belt to Appalachians next 10 days.

Look out for increased severe weather potential Wed and particularly Thu PM as the very system which produced a water spout around Sacramento, CA today drifts east of the Rockies.

Apologies for no video today… More tomorrow.

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