I just cut a video but it’s failed to upload unfortunately. Still in Northern Ireland spending some time with family but shall be home and back to normal posting tomorrow night/Friday.

Here’s some pictures I took this morning from Black Gap Farm in Co Down.

I’m really keen to get a post up regarding the NAO past/current and future as well as the AMO cycle trends and what impact the warm and cold phases have but I’ve been off the computer much of the last few days.

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Regarding the nearer term. Both ECMWF and GFS are hinting at our stubborn ridge of glory shifting NE into Scandinavia this weekend. If the UK sits on the SW periphery of the ridge then the door in unlocked and liable to get opened next week by rain bearing fronts that have been held back over a busy, unsettled North Atlantic.

Hope your enjoying this great weather. From what I can see it should last through at least the weekend into early next week.

The high managed to reach a respectable 22C in Glasgow, 23C just west of Dublin. Keep in mind that the average highs by this time are down to 16C.

If your not a fan of the heat, at least it cools nicely by night. In fact it’s cooling enough that frost was apparently on my grand father’s back lawn this morning.

The latest GFS surface charts below show the ridge relocated up to Scandinavia and all the mess out over the Atlantic heading our way by mid next week.

ECMWF is a little different but does show disturbed weather pushing in right around the same time as the GFS (mid next week)

Both models show the core of the ridge lifting north or northeast but given this overall pattern, don’t be surprised if we get either a delay in this breakdown or it comes only to be followed by more above normal heights.

No surprise the CFSv2 has a very dry (compared to normal) Sept from Ireland to Russia.

October still looks dry and warm.

Will try to post tomorrow but shall be travelling home. Appreciate your understanding.

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