While heat bookends the US with an unusually cool pocket in between, it’s all eyes on 91L off the Florida coast for development of this years first tropical cyclone.

The latest visible satellite image shows a good low level circulation as seen by NOAA reconnaissance aircraft. However, note all the convection is restricted to the southern side of the system. Until these thunderstorms can wrap around the centre, then development will remain limited. Shear is expected to drop and with warm waters below, the NHC has an 80% chance of this system developing off the South Atlantic coast within the next couple of days.

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It would appear atmosphere and ocean is coming together for the first development of the 2014 Atlantic season. If develops, this storm will be named Arthur.

Waters around and beneath 91L are plenty warm and a good couple of degrees above average for the time of year.

Here’s the latest ECMWF surface chart through the next several days. Note, like I showed in last night’s post, track and intensity remains much the same with the system becoming a hurricane as it rides up the North Carolina coast.

48 hrs

72 hrs

96 hrs

A lot will depend upon the behaviour of the eastbound trough 0ver the US.

Another big story these days is the building heat on both sides of the country while it’s unseasonably cool in between all thanks to a deep low crossing Canada that’s carving out an unusually deep trough. Record or near record heat is baking the West while hot, humid air roasts the East either side.

Strong to severe storms are riding the front associated with the low.

Check out this scene out of Madison, WI this afternoon.

Here’s why!

On a side note, Minneapolis failed to reach 90 during June. First time in 11 years (since 2003). New York City too has yet to reach 90 but it appears a 90 is possible in the coming days.

It sure is hot in the West while very warm and humid in the South and up the East coast.

While the cool really grips the N Plains and Upper Midwest, the heat builds either side of the deep trough. On 2 or 3 afternoons highs will easily surpass 110 in Las Vegas and Phoenix with near 120 in the low deserts. Death Valley will likely top 125.

Here are the forecasted highs via weather.com for Tuesday and Wednesday.

Here’s the upper air setup tomorrow and Wednesday.

Reason for heat bookending the country with temps 10-15 below normal in between.

Sorry for the brief post, will have more tomorrow.

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Tags: heatwave, Hurricane Season 2014, tropical cyclone, tropics