Once again, Glasgow in the West of Scotland took the prize for the UK warm spot yesterday. The high peaked at 26.1C. The reason is simple, we’re closest to that 1032mb high pressure core with enough of a cap for least amount of cloud. Around the rim of the strongest heights (east Scotland down through much of England and Wales), showers, even the odd thunderstorm is popping, managing to break the cap where mid level temps are a touch cooler.

As for Ireland, well Mayo topped a warmer 27C, Northern Ireland 25C yesterday.

This is in the starkest contrast to what we’re seeing over parts of Scandinavia…

Check this out!

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Here’s the view as of 6.35am this morning here at my house. Can’t see the hills BUT, rest assured, we have another WARM day coming up as this low cloud, mist/fog which naturally settles during the cool of night will burn off once the sun climbs.

BBC’s predicted conditions for today…

Forecasted highs this afternoon according to the ECMWF.

Europe

UK & Ireland

27 or 28C is possible over Ireland and Scotland today!

While the ridge peaks UK and Ireland temperatures this afternoon, the ridge weakens enough to allow a cold front to sink south tonight into tomorrow and as a result, check out the temperature difference by tomorrow afternoon at the same time.

The GFS shows the gradual late week weakening which will allow a cold front to sink south, forcing temps to drop a good 8-10C between today and tomorrow.

6 hrs

36 hrs

72 hrs

The ECMWF 500mb height anomalies show the true height collapse this weekend into early next week BUT, it looks like we have more ridging by mid next week.

While the ridge does break down, it doesn’t completely collapse if you notice, hanging on and eventually, it comes back in.

I think we may see that bigger trough come right in at the close of June/start of July.

The CFSv2 shows the ridge week 1, breaking down week 2 (this weekend into next) but remember I showed you the ECM monthly and it’s deep trough during the first week of July right over the UK, check out week 3 off the CFSv2, think it may be sniffing that scenario out too but also note that by week 4, it has the ridge back where it is now…

Here’s the latest CFSv2 for July and August, hum, a warming trend now showing up??

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