The first week of June and meteorological summer is turning out to be rather unsettled in the West while hot in the East and North of Europe.

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Interestingly the new run of the CFSv2 has trended wetter in the west including the UK for June. Major warmth for central and north.

It remains much the same temperature wise, average to slightly above average over the UK and I recon we get a back and fourth between ridge in Scand and trough near the Azores.

ECMWF 7-day mean 500mb height anomalies show little change in upper setup next 10 days with UK in fight zone between low and high.

Day 1-7

3-10

The GFS ensembles show the Scandinavia ridge spreading WSW, bringing a return of warmer, drier weather back into the UK week 2.

7-14 day

We continue to closely monitor the development and intensification of a large low late this week off SW Ireland. The models show this system deepening below 985mb and will present coastal gales, heavy rain and surge of warm, humid air across Ireland and the UK this weekend.

The low will draw quick warm, muggy air up from the warmer than normal Med.

Be sure to check out today’s video.

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