Tomorrow morning’s unusually cold start will be followed by a pleasant and mild day as ridging builds into Ireland and the UK with chilly NNE shifting to a much warmer SW direction.

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The cold trough currently overhead, supporting -5C 850mb temps will slide into central Europe while a cut off low continues to bring, wet, windy and unseasonably cool conditions to Italy, Balkans and central Mediterranean. Heat builds over Spain and Portugal where ridging becomes strong through next week.

Here’s tomorrow morning’s GFS 2 metre temps across Europe.

UK close-up of GFS 2 metre temps tomorrow morning. Somewhere could hit -5 or even -6C.

By contrast, Monday sees the ridge back in play with Southeast England temps likely to top 21-22C, mid-20s across northern France into the Low Countries.

The surface chart for the same period shows the eastward shift of wet weather into Greece and Turkey.

Looking ahead through the next 15 days, here’s the GFS meteogram for Dublin, Amsterdam and Madrid. Note the RISE, then fall, back to rise in surface pressure and temperature. This shows the very up and down nature of the pattern next 2 weeks, opposite over eastern parts of the continent.

DUBLIN, IRELAND surface fields (temp (C), wind, pressure, precip)

Day 1-8

9-15

AMSTERDAM, NETHERLANDS surface fields

Day 1-8

9-15

MADRID, SPAIN surface fields

Day 1-8

Day 9-15

Ridging builds through the first half of next week from Iberia to Ireland but we see a lowering of heights late week into next weekend before more ridging returns.

The ECMWF 500mb shows the return of the trough and more unsettled conditions to end next week.

QPF rainfall through the next 10 days.

Spain and Portugal is the place to be if your looking for little to no rain…

The ECMWF monthly shows the up and down of the ridge/trough pattern through much of May.

240 hrs (trough over UK, ridge in east)

276 hrs (ridge returns briefly to UK ahead of next front approaching from the W)

Model shows fairly deep trough by 348 hrs.

By 492 hrs, the model shows a northerly high building south over the UK as a deep low sinks south into the near continent.

Obviously this far out is fantasy casting but it’s interesting to see the up and down pattern way into mid and late month.

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