While cold air has begun it’s southward journey over the UK and Western Europe, warmer, brighter conditions are set to return immediately after.

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The much anticipated chill is now pressing south along with a chilly high which will present a very cold start to the bank holiday weekend. In saying that, as the cold drives south, so warmer air is already pushing in from the Azores once again as the European height field flips from positive to negative back to positive. As you can see from the below GFS ensemble chart, the NAO is heading positive again.

Check out these Saturday AM temps according to the GFS. I’ve highlighted for days now that I suspect a -6C somewhere with this setup.

While the chill is at it’s strongest Saturday morning with many inland spots away from towns and cities at or below freezing, positive heights and warmer air is already pushing up into the UK from the southwest.

Here’s Saturday morning’s 2 metre temp anomalies across Europe. Considerably below normal throughout Europe.

The 500mb height anomaly for the same time Sat morning shows ridging already building back into the UK from the Azores.

This appears to be a sign of a more positive height field once again. Notice the bias towards positive, not negative heights over Western and much of Europe. When the trough tries to come in, so it’s kicked out and replaced by ridging soon after.

GFS 7-day mean 500mb heights show positive heights re-establishing.

7-14 day

Be sure to watch today’s video for more.

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