It’s was like a January morning throughout the Midwest and East this morning with widespread 0s and 10s across New England, 20s across the rest of the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic and even 30s down across the northern Gulf states. Let’s take a quick look at how the models are handling this morning’s cold compared to the actual numbers. The reason is because, we could well see COLDER once the Tuesday-Wednesday monster low passes. Here’s the ECMWF surface at 12z today.

Those are impressive thicknesses even if it were mid winter with 510 south of New York City, 516 south of Philly and 522 south of DC. 850 temps sure reflect the surface analysis.

2 metre temps.

Here are the actual numbers

Model did pretty well. The reason I think Wednesday, particularly Thursday morning will be colder is because of a few factors including, direct NW flow which drives reinforcing arctic air over freshly laid snow. Could see 2-5 degrees off this morning’s values.

Coastal Low To Explode Off Coast! 40+mb Drop In 12 Hours?

For days now we’ve been talking about the potential coastal low that’s expected to develop and intensify off the East Coast. Models have and continue to be aggressive with ‘bombogenesis’.

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As of this writing, we are starting to see all the ingredients coming together. 1) we have arctic air in place throughout the east, 2) a storm system is crossing the Heartland bringing snow to the eastern Plains/MS Valley 3) we have copious amounts of moisture streaming west to east along the Gulf Coast from Texas to Florida. The 4th component will be strong upper energy that will drive out of Canada and will merge with the surface feature crossing the Midsection.

This will force INCREASED upward motion out ahead and by tomorrow, as the energy over the MS-OH Valley meets, a low will form off the NC-VA coast. The system crossing the country will pull the Gulf moisture north and this along with the reinforcing cold and energy out of Canada will start to rapid deepening process off the coast. Here’s the latest 500mb and surface charts from the ECMWF which show how all this come together.

36 hrs

Notice that as the upper energy connects (above) with Gulf Coast energy getting drawn north also, so the coastal low is forming off the Carolina coast (below)

By 00z Wednesday, the energy has forced the digging and deepening off the trough which has now shifted negative. This now pulls Atlantic/Gulf moisture and energy back into the coast. This is when things get dangerous because the low by this point will be in it’s rapid deepening phase.

Here’s the surface for the same period. Notice the moisture getting drawn towards shore.

By 06z Wednesday, there’s incredible upper energy spinning above and close to the surface low. By getting the upper low close to the surface low, this will increase upward motion, drawing surface air into the storm from all around at an accelerated rate.

Check out the drop in pressure between 54 and 66 hours. 54 hrs

66 hrs

Yep, it goes from 984 to at least 958mb. Note the frigid air which the system is pulling towards the coast from Canada. Interior winds will be blowing out of Canada while winds scream out of the NNE at the coast. Gusts are likely to top 60 mph as far south as Atlantic City but could be nearing hurricane-force on the Cape where a full fledged blizzard will be underway.

By 84 hrs the system has entered it’s weakening phase as it lifts north over Atlantic Canada.  Here are expected snow totals according to the ECMWF. Note it has the 24 inch bulls eye offshore but the 18 inch line clips the Cape.

Here’s the AccuWeather snow forecast.

Here’s the Weather Channel’s.

A shift by a mere 50 miles in the track and it could be a difference of 3 to as much as 10 inches for New York City. There’s a chance NYC could still get hit hard by this and the reason is the low may try to track nearer the the exceptionally warm water lurking just off the coast. Check out this chart which I’ve showed before regarding this storm. These waters are about the warmest globally, when compared to normal. This is most certainly going to aid in the deepening off this system.  Here’s the expected lows Thursday morning according to the ECMWF.

Once the low clears out, warmth building over the Plains mid to late week pushes east and 60s will grace the chilled to the bone Northeast by the weekend. Here’s the ECMWF chart that you’ll be glad to see if in search of warmer weather! Only down side is, this is not a sign of things to come permanently.  First 90s For Oklahoma & Kansas Next Week? First hot surge of spring is showing up on the ECMWF for next Monday. This air mass coupled with dry ground is likely to present the first upper 80s and low 90s as far north as south Kansas next week but unfortunately each surge will likely get flattened by more cold coming down from Canada.  ECMWF & GFS 2 metre temps for next Monday Staying Cooler Than Normal Well Into April According To CFSv2  [/s2If][s2If current_user_cannot(access_s2member_level1)][magicactionbox id=”18716″][/s2If]

Tags: New England blizzard, Northeast snowstorm