There’s no disputing the chill that’s coming down early next week. The question is how cold will it be and who and where will see snow, yes it’s that time of year again.

What I will say is this, this is somewhat of a wake-up call following a tame autumn so far temperature wise. Next week’s chill is nothing out of the ordinary for November and it’s likely to a classic early taste of winter with any snow that falls, dropping to increasingly low levels as the arctic air penetrates south.

The latter half of this week through the first half of the weekend is looking rather benign but through Sunday and into Monday we see change with the southward progression of a frontal boundary. That boundary will be the door opener to colder air. However, it’s a seemingly unimpressive low which passes to our north which will allow ARCTIC air to start it’s journey south later Monday.

The below GFS surface chart shows the front sinking south over the UK Monday. This will introduce colder air with wintry showers and potentially lowering snow levels Monday night.

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By Tuesday the front sinks well to the south of the UK and we find ourselves on the receiving end of an increasingly bitter northerly flow blowing straight from the arctic as you can see from the isobars in the below chart. Note the 540 (rain-snow line) is well to our south.

Check out the 850mb temperatures by 132 hr (Tue). We’re well and truly in the arctic air.

By 156 hr (Wed) the flow continues to drive colder air south with -10C 850s pushing into northern Scotland. Highs Tuesday may struggle to make 0C in many Highland towns while it struggles to reach 2-4C elsewhere in Scotland and Northern Ireland, perhaps just 5-7C in the South with subfreezing wind chills.

By the way, one must watch that low just off the Norway coast. Moisture associated with this feature could spell SNOW even to low levels across Scotland, likely in the North but that will depend upon availability of the moisture the further south you go.

What are the snow charts showing?

It’s impossible to say this far out, who will or won’t get snow. You can merely take a guess at this stage but a lot depends on the low near Norway and the amount of moisture available as well as the strength of the north wind on the backside. That low will be ultimately the wheel which transports the arctic air mass south.

Here’s the 144 hour GFS…

UK

Right now, I think where the chart shows white, there is a chance of snowfall but it won’t necessarily stick but where there’s blue and you can see that over NW Ireland and North, Northwest Scotland, that’s where the model is seeing LYING snow. Long way out so will be interesting to watch the newer runs come in.

While I believe the air is cold enough over most of the UK by Tuesday/Wednesday next week, a lot will obviously depend upon how much moisture there is available. The ECMWF is far less bullish.

Looking into late next week, it’s interesting to see the GFS kick the coldest air east while a return of milder Atlantic air while the ECMWF holds onto the cold trough over the UK.

192 hr GFS

ECMWF

What’s going to be interesting as we progress into next week, will be how long this chill holds and if it kicks out, how long will the mild last. The reason is that the NAO/AO is trending negative after being strongly positive and since we’ve removed at least some of the heat from our surrounding waters, one must wonder if the cold will try to keep on coming back.

Again, as mentioned in greater detail last night, here’s the current SST’s globally. Notice the colder water now showing around the UK.

Here was back at the start of October.

By shifting the warmest SST values west, so the mean ridge and strongest heights should follow allowing colder air and troughs to drop into western Europe including the UK.

Finally, check out the CFSv2 4 week 500mb height anomalies and notice the blocking which starts to show up over the arctic next week onwards.

Week 1-2

W 3-4

Notice Alaska and Greenland high connecting which holds the cold underneath. With the Greenland block, one must suspect a western Europe/eastern North America trough between Nov 27 and Dec 10 if the CFSv2 is anything to go by.

The above charts are suggesting that we have a lot more colder air involved over the mid-latitudes late November into December. So it may warm but it may not be for long. Time will tell.

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Tags: europe snow, UK Snow, uk winter weather