The mild air currently northeast from the Azores across Ireland and the UK will be quickly followed by chilly air from Iceland by Wednesday as a series of lows swing into Iceland. We have one deep low impacting Iceland at the moment and another impacts Wednesday. That storm system is expected to bring a band of rain along with gale-force winds across the Northern UK Wednesday and so yes the Atlantic pattern continues for the UK and western Europe.

Check out the GFS surface chart for Wednesday.

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By Thursday the low tracks east of Iceland and so we get the chilly northwest flow on the backside. Note the strong upper ridge on it’s heels.

By Friday we have a relatively mild WSW flow and ridging. That ridge and particularly WSW flow will pump a lot of moist air our way and so expect a lot of cloud, damp and drizzly weather across much of Ireland and the UK. The focus of heavy rain and strongest winds will be north of the UK.

Colder Pattern Still Likely Towards The 20th

Skipping ahead and the models continue to show high pressure building northwest of the UK towards the 17-18th of the month and this certainly suggests a colder pattern settling into the UK for a time. The duration remains very uncertain but I believe the colder pattern is certain. What will be interesting is how cold do we get and whether we get much in the way of snow at low levels. The GFS shows a straight forward cold, arctic blast from the north while the ECMWF shows similar but has low pressure off the SE coast of the UK but may hint at a potential snow event for South and Southeast England.

Here’s what the models are showing around the 19th.

GFS

Surface

5k temps

ECMWF

Surface

216 hr 5k temps

It’s way too far out to provide any sort of detail but this potential pattern is something well worth paying close attention to.

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