Remembrance Day weekend presents a little of everything across Ireland and the UK with likely the coldest night of autumn tomorrow night while this may be followed by the mildest weather in a good week to 10 days. Wind and rain in between. The persistent cold westerly air flow which has been feeding frequent, blustery showers in Scotland, Northwest England and Northern Ireland eases tomorrow thanks to a chilly high settling in from the north.

Saturday night looks set to be the coldest night of autumn across Ireland and the UK with a widespread and fairly hard frost. Even the towns and cities could well see frost and temperatures down to 0C. Sheltered rural areas could get down to between -2 and -4C widely, perhaps -7C in some of the colder spots.

Here’s the GFS projected temps by 9Z Sunday AM.

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This chart doesn’t show a particularly cold night and often the GFS surface temperatures are underdone. 30F by the way is -1C, 35F is around 2C.

Here’s tomorrow’s upper pattern/5,000ft temps from the ECMWF.

During Sunday high pressure is firmly in place over the UK and this should allow for a beautiful but cold Remembrance Sunday.

This cold stable atmosphere is quickly replaced by a strengthening southwest flow and eventually is replaced by a band of heavy rain associated with the next Atlantic low which spins near Iceland as you can see from the below GFS surface chart.

That frontal band introduces a sharp rise in temperature during Monday as you can see in the below upper chart off the ECMWF. While the front brings wind, rain and a surge of mild into the UK, the chilly trough slides east affecting Scandinavia, Denmark, Low Countries and Germany as well as down into the Alps where a storm system will present healthy snow amounts.

Check out the 72 hour GFS snow chart!!

You can see the ridging or at least the stronger heights and warmer air pushing up into the UK Monday. Once the main band is through, with some sunshine, we could see 15C in Scotland and Northern Ireland while southern Ireland and England may see locally 17C following Sunday’s highs of just 4-9C.

This is a classic active ZONAL Atlantic pattern in which Greenland cold feeds frequent cold shots into the UK on the backside of lows.

The Wednesday chart below shows the backside cold of Tuesday exiting while the next surge of mild knocks on the western door with the next low.

By Wednesday the model clearly shows the sharp ups and down of this strong Atlantic pattern. You can see how Greenland grows colder again and with a cold high settling overhead, don’t be surprised to see temperatures plummet to -60C over the interior Icecap.

Check out the N Hemispheric view of the ECMWF chart and notice the cold pool settled over Greenland with the wavy west-east jet underneath as well as the stubborn cut off low over Italy that will continue to keep things unsettled over the Med with heavy snows in the Alps.

Colder Pattern On The Horizon?

Looking out over the next 2+ weeks, there are hints of a pattern change building heights to the northwest of the UK. The ECMWF Control shows a cold trough dropping south and covering most of Europe towards the 18-20th.

The current pattern with colder air flows dropping into the UK is now bringing those warm temperatures down around the UK and so this may help encourage colder, arctic origin air to builds into Western Europe rather than central or eastern areas.

Here’s a quick glimpse at the 264 hour ECMWF Control and notice it has some pretty cold air dropping over Western and really much of Europe.

That’s a healthy looking chill out at 312 hours.

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