It’s all eyes of course on the storm that initially brought the snows to Colorado and Wyoming, later to western Nebraska as well as the Rapid City area and now up into Minneapolis. We could see a good 2-4 inch accumulation around the suburbs of the Twin Cities tonight and the snows have now started to fall following initial rain.

Here’s the latest ECMWF snow chart through the next 36 hours and you can see it’s a fairly thin strip of snow.

By the end of the week that system is off the map and another cold shot follows into the Northeast while the next system barrels into the Pacific Northwest. In fact that there is a lot of model guidance indicating a bombardment of Pacific systems into the NW next week as the PNA becomes strongly negative, so in terms of storminess, the NW may be in for a rough upcoming 10 days, especially with the positive NAO.

Interestingly the previous run of the ECMWF showed a major storm system and trough into the Great Lakes and most of the East but as expected and given the indexes, that idea backed off and we’re back to a much flatter flow with Pacific air winning out across the country but notice there’s plenty a decent looking system taking shape mid next week and cold air which REALLY builds into Canada, tries to drop south.

Check out Thursday, there’s the start of that bombardment I was mentioning in the NW while a low really tries to wind up over the St Lawrence Valley.

[s2If current_user_can(access_s2member_level1)]

The indexes support a very deep WESTERN trough for sure and the piling up of energy into the West could drop a major trough and cold blast into the West but given the +NAO, I simply don’t see it in the East.

Here’s another look at the ECMWF upper chart and 850 temps and again you can see the cross polar flow and major arctic air driving south into Canada but this comes up against the strong resistance of a powerful ZONAL Pacific jet which should hold the real cold north of the border. In saying that, stranger things have happened and if this gets south, we could still get something but my suspicion is, it’s further west.

Notice by Monday, the model shows the arctic blast trying to get further south but that low hanging back further off the west coast, keeps the jet flat.

By next Wednesday, that low pushes east and so does that plunge of cold air. Will be interesting to see how far south it gets through next week and whether the model starts to take that southward plunge of arctic air south but further west.

[/s2If][s2If is_user_logged_in() AND current_user_cannot(access_s2member_level1)]

That’s it, [s2Get constant=”S2MEMBER_CURRENT_USER_DISPLAY_NAME” /]!

To continue reading, you need to have a valid subscription to access premium content exclusive to members. Please join a subscription plan if you would like to continue.[/s2If][s2If !is_user_logged_in()]

Sign in to read the full forecast…

Not yet a member? Join today for unlimited access

Sign up to markvoganweather.com today to get unlimited access to Mark Vogan’s premium articles, video forecasts and expert analysis.
[/s2If]