The Europe pattern becomes highly amplified starting this weekend and as warmth lifts north a low over Iceland will slide east, riding the northerly periphery of the northern extending UK ridge. The thermal contrast will develop a storm system that will tap colder arctic origin air and pull it south across Scandinavia while warmth builds north over the UK.
Here’s the ECMWF upper chart for tomorrow.
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Here’s Monday and the system is pushing through the Baltic states, dragging cold air down on it’s backside while temperatures rise over the UK, even Denmark but it’s considerably colder further north with northwest winds, cloud and likely rain turning to snow.
By Tuesday the trough is carved out and extends from northern Norway to southeast Europe. The upper low sits pretty much over Moscow. This could be a day where London enjoys 25-27C while Moscow struggles to reach 3-5C with either a cold rain or even some sleet or snow.
By Friday a low north of Scotland and east of Iceland intensifies and appears to develop a trough which tries to drop south, flattening the UK ridge, driving much cooler air down from the north potentially setting up a battle.
Cold air continues to flow from Iceland, Scandinavia southeastwards.
According to the ECMWF, there’s no sign of any warmth returning to Scandinavia any time soon, in fact the trough continues to deepen with the upper low intensifying and mid and upper levels growing colder by next Sunday.
Here’s the GFS snow projections out by 168 hours.
Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro
Remember the NAO/AO charts I’ve been showing for a solid week now and the fact their set to go firmly negative. well notice the 240 hour ECMWF below..
What this chart shows me, is the model is trying to take the UK high northwards and one must wonder whether all the cold air over Scandinavia may try to drift east UNDERNEATH the northward drifting high. This could be a hint to a developing NEGATIVE NAO signal but this of course is way out. Could however be the first signs of a negative NAO and signal to colder times ahead for Denmark, the Low Countries and UK.
Latest NAO/AO GFS ensemble
A very interesting October is likely over western Europe I believe if these indicators hold true which I think they should given their persistency.
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