In coming days, Europe will find itself in a rather wild pattern with a highly amplified jet stream pattern with a big ridge developing in the west while a deep trough sets up in the east. This wild buckling of the jet will drive a lot of heat north from Spain to the UK with southerly winds blowing while cold northerly winds will blow across northern Scandinavia and drop into Russia all the way to the Ukraine.

It’s all thanks to a significant trough dropping over the North Atlantic with a large cut off low set to spin southwest of the UK, that feature will help pump the UK ridge driving heat north as of course what goes up, must come down.

Check out Sunday’s ECMWF upper chart. It’s unknown exactly how much sunshine will be available over the UK and Ireland but with this setup and that amount of warmth in the mid levels, we could see 25C in England, 23C in the Republic and Wales and 22C in Scotland and Northern Ireland. By this stage, though a cooler northwest flow, it won’t be terribly cold over Scandinavia or Russia at this point.

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The ECMWF surface chart shows rain for northern Scotland, elsewhere, it’s dry and likely bright or sunny with plenty of warm, humid air. This extends east into the Low Countries, while comfortable in Denmark and even southern Norway and Sweden.

On Monday the warmth builds further from Ireland to Denmark.

Note the ECMWF upper chart above and the GFS surface chart below is in sync. Monday could be a very warm day across the UK in particular. Chillier air now spreads across northern Scandinavia, perhaps some snow here?

By Tuesday a low deepens and digs south between Iceland and Norway, potentially pushing rain and windier conditions into Scotland with a temporary dent in the bubble of high pressure. It’s this feature worth watching..

The ECM surface chart shows the deepened, north-south elongated low and trough formed over the Norwegian Sea. This feature will dive SE, helping not only draw colder air south out of the arctic but will deepen the eastern trough and make way for substantial height rises on it’s rear. This will separate the large temperature contrast setting up for the second half of the week across Europe.

By Thursday that storm system heads for the path of least resistance and that’s SE across Scandinavia, allowing heights to rebuild back over the UK but as heights rebuild on the backside and the system tracks ESE, it taps colder, arctic origin air. The upper low is seen centred along the Finland-Russia border with cold northwest winds blowing in from the arctic.

That’s a large temperature contrast..

If this were to hold true, we could see at least mid-20s in the UK (Greater London) while snow was falling across Scandinavia down into western Russia.

Here’s the ECM surface chart.

Check out the 5,000ft temps. Yes, that’s -5 to -10C air covering much of Scandinavia with a stinging NNW wind blowing.

While the ECM shows little to nothing, check out the GFS SNOW chart through 168 hrs.

By Friday the deep trough and low heights slides slightly further east as the ridge spreads out a little. The UK by this stage remains warm and largely settled while it’s unseasonably cold from northern Scandinavia where snow is likely, down towards Moscow. Here’s daytime highs may struggle to get much above 0-4C.

ECM surface chart for Friday.

The cold signal remains for October!!

NAO

AO

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