Humberto became the Atlantic Basin’s first hurricane and fell just 3 hours shy of setting the record for the latest hurricane on record. That same system is once again catching the attention of meteorologists here in the UK and it’s northward progression over the Atlantic later this week, will have significant influence this weekend into much of next week.
Yes, it’s that time of year when Western Europe see tropical storm or hurricane remnants, just a couple of years back and the remnants of once Hurricane Katia, hit the UK as an extra-tropical cyclone, bringing hurricane-force winds and actually brought greater impacts here than down in the tropics.
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This time around, we may get the opposite effects as Humberto tracks nearly DUE-NORTH and gets picked up by the trans-Atlantic jet stream. Humberto’s latent heat will re-amplify the upper pattern over the Atlantic by deepening a storm system south of Greenland. As this system deepens, it will greatly lower heights over the North Atlantic and as a result, heights will significantly rise over the UK as well as the western flank of Europe (eventually)
Here’s the latest track of still, tropical storm Humberto!
SEE TODAY’S VIDEO!
The further west track is key and this is something a little less typical of remnant tropical systems entering the North Atlantic as they often transition into fairly deep low’s and hit the UK bringing wind and rain. That of course was the original idea back last Saturday. If you go back and look at Saturday’s video you’ll see I had a very different outlook for the weekend and early part of the week ahead.
By 120 hours of Sunday, the ECMWF has a significant ridge pumping summer-like heat back into the UK.
Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro
By 144 or Monday it has an impressive 588dc ridge centred directly over Britain.
Courtesy/Owned by AccuWeather Pro
Check out the 850mb or 5,000ft temps Monday!
This is sure to push temperatures towards 24C in Scotland, perhaps 27 or 28C over Southeast England.
We have a strong of very warm, sunny days to come starting this weekend and could last well into next week.
Does it last though?
If the NAO/AO ensembles are correct in their trend towards negative by months end, the answer is no!
I stand by the idea of a cold October ahead and in fact a cold end to September.
Be sure to check out the latest video for more and a look at winter according to the CFS model!
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