In the last few hours, Tropical Depression 10 formed in the southwest Gulf of Mexico and this system continues to show signs of development and intensification. TD 10 may very well be upgraded to a storm during Friday and poses a SIGNIFICANT flood threat to eastern Mexico over the next 5-7 days. The trouble is that we’ve already seen a lot of heavy rain from a series of systems which have already crosses the region from around Tampico in towards north-central areas.

Here’s the current RBTOP imagery showing Ingrid-to-be and you can see it’s looking increasingly better organised with a lot of deep convection over top of the centre, tucked in over the Bay of Campeche.

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Rainbow imagery

High pressure will build over the Southern Plains over the next 5-7 days and so this system will be taking aim at Mexico, likely between Tampico and Brownsville. This looks likely to remain spinning and intensifying as it does so, off the Mexican east coast so heavy rainfall is a major concern and by early and mid next week, both GFS and ECMWF take this thing inland, potentially as a hurricane as the 83-86F waters feed this system. Wind shear and dry air should be minimal, so there’s no reason why this thing cannot become a strong storm or hurricane.

Between now and next Friday, we could see widely 4-8 inches of rain up and down eastern Mexico with locally a foot just inland over the high mountainous terrain. Flash flooding is a real concern.

Here’s the ECMWF rainfall projection over the next 7 days.

Here’s the ECMWF track of TD 10.

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By Monday the system is inland over NE Mexico.

GFS shows in reaching the coast slightly later, taking it into Mexico just north of Tampico on Tuesday.

This could be a cat 1 or 2 storm by next week.

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