Although there are areas to watch in the Atlantic, overall it remains quiet with no immediate threat to land. The below graphic shows two areas worth at least a watching at the present time. The system in the western Atlantic to the north of Hispaniola is the remnants of Gabrielle which appears to be showing signs of rejuvenation while the system hatched in red that’s coming off Africa, looks likely to at least develop into a depression in coming days.

I want to look first at the system coming off Africa because while it may not threaten land, this system has been picked up by models for many days for potential development once out over the warmer-than-normal eastern Atlantic.

You can clearly see the large and vibrant circulation with a ball of deep convection within a centre. Still, like most systems which have swept off Africa this year, it’s pulling in dry air from the Sahara.

Below is the GFS surface chart out at 72 hrs and you can see the model trying to organise this. The reason I’m focusing on this system is because the models are trying to develop this not only into a storm but hurricane and keeping in mind that if there’s no development by Wednesday (11th) then a new record for latest hurricane development will have been set. This system is the only one that threatens to keep the current record which Gustav holds.

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By 120 hrs or next Friday, the GFS has a robust, likely hurricane.. recurving north over the eastern Atlantic. The question is does this become the first hurricane of the 2013 season and if it does, will it become a hurricane before or after Wednesday.

As for the western Atlantic, we have a lot of shower and thunderstorm activity over the Caribbean with a clustering but unorganised area of convection over the western Gulf bringing messy conditions to easterm and central Mexico. Of course the now decayed TS Lorena is pumping moisture north up into the Baja, western Mexico and the Desert Southwest while TD 8’s remnants continues to bring heavy rains to central Mexico.

As for the remnants of Gabrielle, you can see in the above satellite image the flare up of convection and cold bright cloud tops indicating that this system is trying to get it’s act together again. The general consensus takes this system north and may threaten a rough few days in Bermuda though I don’t see this as a significant threat. May redevelopment into a storm but I don’t see anything else. Notice in the longer term the remnants head towards the UK.

Below are the current water temps across the Atlantic. Plenty of energy.

Below is the Atlantic water temperature anomalies and you can see the well above normal waters extending off the Africa coast with an area of below normal likely caused by upwelling from stronger than normal winds blowing out of the northeast. Those same NE winds which created the upwelling also were responsible for pulling the vast amounts of dry air out over the Atlantic from Africa all courtesy of a much larger and stronger mid-Atlantic ridge this summer.

That same high ultimately squashed the ITCZ (Inter tropical convergence zone) as heights were too strong. There was little low level convergence because of large scale and strong, sinking air.

Joe Bastardi has made mention in recent times of the colder than normal waters across a very large area of the Indian Ocean and how this may have been the reason for a quieter African wave train this year. Another contributor to what has been a very strange year. I’ve brought up the global water temperature anomalies for you to see those cooler than normal water compared to normal in the Indian Ocean.

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