I did a video Tuesday night which looked at the upcoming US fall and winter. Here are the charts which were looked at.

Remember, I believe that the warmth we’ve seen this summer over more northern areas which have produced a lot of warm waters across the North this year, could well lead to strong high latitude blocking. The models are showing the tripole of warm-cold-warm over the North Atlantic which bodes well for a Greenland block.

Here are the current sea surface temp anomalies.

The warmer than normal SST’s over the North Pacific and near to NW North America may support more of a positive PNA or ridge up the West Coast of NA which would support a trough over the central and eastern US.

Here are projected SST’s for December according to the CFSv2. Note the tripole or warm-cold-warm over the North Atlantic. This supports a Greenland block which in turn supports the possibility of twin troughs either side. 1 over eastern North America, the other over western Europe.

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The CFSv2 does show warmer than normal temperatures over Greenland during the winter months which indicates a blocking high.

If this occurs then there’s no surprise in what the CFSv2 has for winter.

December

January

The December through February period.

See VIDEO for analysis!
It’s of course a long way to go but time is ticking and I will have my Official US Winter Forecast release likely around October 31.

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