We’re seeing some big time mesoscale convective complexes of MCS’s roam the nations midsection these past few nights and tonight’s no different. Missouri in particular is getting hammered by flooding rains and it’s all to do with the setup.

The atmosphere has ultimately laid down tracks in which storms fire and run along. The low level jet is strong and with warmth and humidity lifting north from Texas and cold, dry air coming down from Canada, you’ve got the perfect setup for training thunderstorms which can and are dumping a lot of rain over the same areas.

Here’s the latest 120 hour total precip forecast according to the ECMWF model.

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Pattern remains the same over the next 72+ hours so expect more of the same tonight, tomorrow night and the following night..

Lots of heat over Texas with 100s continuing in Dallas and Houston while shots of cool come down via a series of fronts.

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