The blowtorch is well and truly on this weekend from Southern California to Southeast Texas as that well monitored ridge really intensifies across the region while a major trough drops down over the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley.

The below 500mb chart off the ECMWF has been one I’ve showed you a lot throughout this week but I want to emphasize the strength of this ridge. When your talking 596dc heights, that’s about as strong as your going to get with maximum sinking potential and with 850mb temperatures in the 28 to 32C range, some of the hottest air possible can build.

Fri PM

Models are all over this, supporting temperatures that will push the all-time limits in cities such as Las Vegas, providing there’s no outflow boundaries which sweep across the Vegas Valley from mountain storms which may try to blossom due to intense heat.

110s will become common throughout the Desert with areas of 120s showing up. Today is a hot one over Texas but the heat this weekend is set to build  while temperatures take a tumble over the Midwest where highs will have a hard time reaching 70 over parts of Illinois, Indiana into Ohio this weekend into next week.

Just look at that map below, soaring 592 heights nearly as far as Canada while downwind you’ve got 572 heights as far south as Tennessee. Mighty impressive for the closing days of June.

Sunday

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Beneath clear skies, light winds and unusually dry air, overnight lows over parts of the Midwest and Ohio Valley may creep into the 40s in rural areas with mist and fog forming while parts of the Desert Southwest including both Las Vegas and Phoenix may see a low of 90+ on a couple of nights. Widely staying in the mid-80s across the desert. Death Valley may struggle to get below 100 one or two nights after pushing 130.

Here’s the latest projected temperatures off the GFS this weekend.

Fri PM

Note the area of 110 it has over the Texas-Oklahoma border.

Sat PM

Sun PM

So just how hot is it likely to get?

Here are the forecasted ‘peak’ highs I have for a selection of recording stations.

Barstow, CA 116

Baker, CA 120

Death Valley, CA 129

Las Vegas, NV  116

Phoenix, AZ 116

Dallas, TX 106

Houston, TX 102

Check out this graphic of projected highs vs records from the Las Vegas NWS

As for rainfall, there’s a LOT coming over the next 168 hours across the Southeast as the trough and it’s front drops all the way down to South Georgia. A lot of heat and humidity lifting north, bumping up against this wall of cool, dry air parked over the Eastern US will help trigger lively showers and storms along the Gulf Coast to South Atlantic coast on a daily basis and so those rainfall totals sure will mount up.

You may be wondering if there’s any moisture heading up into the Southwest in the form of the ‘monsoon’ in coming days or weeks? Well I’m starting to see moisture spread north from the Mexican desert into the Southwest on the ECMWF next Thursday as some sort of tropical system pushes into Mexico. It’s moisture is projected to enter the Southwest US.

 

 

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Tags: Record Southwest heat, Southwest Heatwave, Western heatwave