The ECMWF continues to show a deepening trough over the West Coast this weekend which forces the heat east. Although it’s always looked hot over the Plains from this weekend into early and mid next week, the newer runs show particularly strong heights and some of the warmest 850mb temperatures yet and so we may well be looking at some of the hottest temperatures of the season so far across the Central Plains with widespread 100s, perhaps some 110s over Kansas.
The comfortable weather now in the Northeast won’t last as this heat, in slightly modified fashion will get all the way to the Big Cities of the Northeast, with 1 or 2 90-degree days from DC to Boston MID next week.
While Minneapolis may see 2 or 3 90+ days, Chicago looks set to sweat in it’s first ‘hot streak’ with 3 to as many as 5 days of 90+ with a max possibly getting into the mid, even UPPER 90s by Monday or Tuesday.
While the heat spreads from SW to NE, lower pressure over the Southeast will keep things fairly active with temperatures held in the 80s with PM storms firing. Looking rather wet in the Sunshine State.
Here’s the latest ECMWF upper chart/850 temps for next week.
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Mon 24
Wed 26
Fri 28
As you can see, the heat and humidity increase in the Northeast appears short lived in the Northeast while during the later part of the 10-day run, the ridge builds strong back over the source region. That’s several runs in a row now in which the ECMWF suggests a major ridge in the West which may pump the first 100s of the year up into Montana and Saskatchewan from mid to late next week.
The Southwest is now getting a break thanks to the low pressure trough now sweeping maritime air across the Pac Northwest into the N Rockies but looks like both Phoenix and Las Vegas return to the 110s with possible 120s back in Death Valley later next week as focus of heat transfers back to the Southwest and Great Basin. Cities such as Reno, Boise, Billings up towards Calgary all look to eye 100 a few days late next week.
Here’s the latest QPF for the next 7 days.
Note the heavy precip through the Great Lakes and the wet over the Southeast and Florida thanks to lower upper heights and embedded upper low pressure which will aid in PM storm development, keeping a lid on daytime heating.
Tropics Worth A Watching?
As for the tropics which of course we have Barry pushing into Mexico now and is sure to bring copious rains to particularly the inland mountains, we may need to watch the Atlantic into early July.
The MJO pulse which has been mentioned this season already and was a great guide in showing us ahead of time the last upswing in activity, looks to be coming back around to a more favourable situation towards early July.
As you can see from the below charts, greens (increased convection) look set to return to the western Atlantic in the next couple of weeks. This is worth paying attention to.
The MJO is going into phase 1, possibly phase 2, a favourable position for the Atlantic by weeks 1 and 2 of July.
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