Enjoy the warm, sunny weekend we have on tap because change comes late Monday into Tuesday as an Atlantic low swings a rain/wind bearing front across Ireland and eventually the UK, finally breaking our splendid spell of weather. This has been on our radar all week of course and given the return to a negative NAO, the breakdown was inevitable. While many will be disappointed our warm, settled stretch is over, especially given it’s fairly lengthy stay, I am already watching the next surge of warmth and I am hopeful it arrives sometime soon after the 20th!

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Firstly, I am trying to gage the approaching breakdown and return to more ‘Atlantic driven’ weather. I don’t see it being a washout or particularly cool either as heights throughout the upcoming week look fairly strong and 850s aren’t cold. In other words it should stay fairly mild, especially when the strong June sunshine comes out but with an increased chance of showers along with an increased breeze once Tuesday’s front clears. There will be plenty of sunshine and even warmth to be enjoyed Thursday and even Friday into next weekend, more so in southern parts while the North is more unsettled.

The GFS spreads rain across Ireland, Northern Ireland and even into the western fringes of the UK by late Monday while the more reliable ECMWF is slower with the fronts arrival, holding it back until later in the day Tuesday. The reason for the delay is that the ECMWF has stronger heights over the UK which will slow the front’s approach but also keeps it stronger too. The lower heights or weaker high over the UK with the GFS means the front has a less concentrated band of precip and spreads east quicker.

The ECMWF control, like deterministic holds the front back and brings rain into Southwest England first as the front follows the path of least resistance and heights are lower. Their seen to be that bit stronger over central and northern parts with a more ‘capped’ atmosphere too which is harder to break down. Once the front reaches the heart of the UK, there appears to be quite the soaking initially with perhaps embedded thunderstorms as there should be a fair amount of warmth to work with, especially if the energy doesn’t reach central areas until late afternoon or evening when there has been natural heat build-up through the day.

It wouldn’t surprise me if we see a quarter to half an inch of rain for many with upslopes receiving a good inch during Wednesday.

Here’s the ECMWF surface chart for Tuesday. Little in the way of rain across the UK as the front is held back by stronger heights than what the GFS is seeing.

72 hr Tue

Eventually the heights are chipped away and the front slides east.

90 hr Tue

Wed

Control & Deterministic Model Shows Unsettled North, Warmer/Sunnier South Next Weekend Before Powerhouse Low Hits!

Once the front clears, later Wednesday/early Thursday, both control and deterministic show a ridge attempting to pump warm air and more settled conditions into the UK and Ireland before the next deep low swings another front which arrives Saturday across the North. Heights appear strong enough across the South to keep the mess further North, a typical setup in summer.

Both control and deterministic models show a VERY DEEP low approaching Scotland with the potential for a battering accross the Northern UK next Sunday into Monday but it’s looking warm and sunny in the South.

The control shows pressure down to 976 and takes it into Northwest Scotland which suggests gales, possibly as far south as the Central Lowlands as well as a spell of heavy rain. The deterministic actually drops pressure down to 970mb but keeps the centre NORTH of Scotland but this would still bring strong winds and heavy rain to much of western Scotland with a large pressure difference between the low of 976 vs 1014mb over S England.

Unfortunately I am not allowed to show you the control run of the ECMWF, however this is the deterministic for next Monday!

Note the pressure down at 972!

As for the GFS, it too has wind and rain next weekend into the following week, however it’s got more of an elongated, negatively tilted low pressure trough for next Monday with messy conditions more south-north oriented, whereas the ECMWF is more west-east. So modelling is in good agreement about the mess next weekend but the dynamics and detail is quite different.

Once this beast departs to the NE, the control shows a 1020+mb ridge builds in bringing the return to warmth and sunshine during the middle of the following week.

I am hopeful that we see our next warm, settled spell of weather by around June 20th onwards. Remember back to recent posts where I’ve alluded to the potential recovery of the NAO back into positive territory. The later half of June may well present our second spell of warmth which may take us into July and you know my thinking about the upcoming July which could be the best in many years if my dry soil theory has merit.

The coming rains by the way, will have little impact on my longer term idea as these won’t be enough to saturate the ground. Yes they will provide a good soaking to the Northern half of the UK but a few days of warm, sunshine and the top soils quickly dry out. This time last year, after a record wet April, we now were enduring a record wet June. Flood waters remained on fields for a solid 2+ months and for some, MOST of last year. The soils were so saturated, they were never allowed to dry out because it just kept on raining.

This upcoming pattern of more unsettled weather will have a life span of approx. 10 days and then we should see a return to more settled weather.

The GFS brings a ridge into the UK and Ireland by around Friday the 21st but more unsettled weather follows whereas the ECMWF Control shows strong ridging trying to build in from the SW by around the 21st which looks like a larger, stronger and more dominant feature.

Here’s my evidence which tells me a late June warm spell, is highly possible. Yes, it’s not solidly positive but I believe it will trend that way.

Be sure to check out my post from a few days ago which looks at the CFSv2 and also the video which explains my July ideas in detail.

Hope to have a video up later!

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