Soils have dried out considerably in the last 10 days across both the UK and Ireland while they’re saturated over central Europe. The warm, dry spell shall continue into early next week, potentially paving the way for later down the road.

The cold spring has lead many into believing this summer would be just like last year and recent summers. As usual folks say it as they see it without actually looking into anything. Many claimed last winter would be like the previous. The assumption is always thrown out there with no backing to support their claim.

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At this stage last year, soils we’re saturated or getting close to saturation, that deemed summer 2012 a washout as the feedback from soil to atmosphere lead to heavy, persistent, flooding rains throughout. This year we’re drying out fast and this setup is part of my summer forecast. While nothing is written in stone, I believe the situation we’re in now, could be the atmosphere’s way of telling us what we can expect in July.

It’s not just the dry but the warm temperatures as the warmer the temperature, the greater the rate of evaporation, drawing more moisture from the ground. I believe this current spell could play a significant role in our July pattern and interestingly, the CFSv2 has slightly below average rainfall through June and considerably BELOW average in July. Often with a drier pattern, you get warmer temperatures.

I encourage you to watch this evening’s video for more detail.

Here’s the CFSv2 temperature and rainfall charts for June and July.

June Precip

July Precip

Given the level of below normal precip over the UK, France but don’t see it as dry over the areas which have seen major flooding. Your positive height anomalies will be wanting to go west while negative holds in the East into the heart of summer. The recent deluge in central areas should make for a cool, possibly wetter mid-summer.

June Temps

Think the model is correct about Spain with the cool, unsettled weather continuing but tough to say whether we end up normal to below. We could be slightly above normal.

July Temps

Notice the warmer than normal over N Spain and France. I think this warmth will spread north while it stays below normal from central areas on east. Western ridge, eastern trough with soil moisture feedback.. Opposite to last year!!

You can follow my weather updates on Twitter: @MarkVogan or on Facebook

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