Thought I would provide a quick update on next week’s pattern and my latest thinking on potential warmth next weekend.
As I tweeted earlier today, the key to whether we get warm, sunny weather next weekend or not is down to the low overhead mid week. It’s position, movement and whether it cuts off from the main upper flow (jet stream) will be key.
I shall show you the latest ECMWF which merely teases us with warmth, keeping it to our east. In the video below I explain why it stays east and what needs to take place in order for us to enjoy summer warmth.
Here are the latest charts from next Wednesday onwards. Be sure to watch the video below for explanation.
Wed
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Thu
Fri
Sat
Sun
[youtube http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EsM_wLfm7wQ]
A Look At June
So how’s it looking beyond next weekend you ask.. Well I thought I would show you the latest CFSv2 mean temperature anomalies for the next 4 weeks as well as June.
As forecasted by myself with partial guidance with the NAO holding onto a negative trend and the overall pattern so far, there is no sustainable warmth on the horizon. Like we could well see next week, though the next 4 weeks OVERALL is looking cooler than normal, there is oppertunity for warmth, it’s just that cooler than normal dominates the overall pattern.
Below the the CFSv2 charts for weeks 1 through 4. Sorry week 2 and 4 is cut off but you still see the UK and get the idea.
Week 1-2
Looking rather cool..
Week 3-4
Also looking cool…
What’s interesting is that despite the cfsv2 by week 3 and 4 taking us into the first week of June cool, it’s June forecast is showing ABOVE NORMAL for the UK and Ireland. Is the model picking up on a spike in the NAO to strong positive beyond June 10th? Let’s face it, this chilly pattern must break sometime right?
Check this out.
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