The pattern is STILL on the crazy cold side with another atmospheric temper tantrum coming up. I saw tweets coming out this afternoon of snow falling up across parts of Ontario down into the UP of Michigan and even as far south as Minneapolis. That’s the leading edge of a cold arctic high which could threaten all-time record lows Sunday through Monday night from Ohio across to New England and all the way down to North Georgia.

The GFS has a major and likely record breaking snowstorm for Ontario with flurries over the higher elevations of the Northeast and Appalachains. It’s also suggesting not 1, 2 but 3 nights of sub-freezing temperatures across parts of New York, Pennsylvania down into western Maryland and West Virginia which could devastate the fruit growing industry.

One should hope the GFS is not correct with it’s forecasted numbers particularly Monday night as it has lows dipping into the low 20s across parts of Central PA, western Maryland into West Virginia with 20s into the mountains of North Carolina, possibly Georgia. Even Atlanta may dip below 40 with light frost not too far north of the metro. That’s crazy for mid-May.

As for Ontario, a major snow event is now unfolding and we could see a substantial 2-4, locally 6 inch snow swath right across the central part of the province over the next 36 hours.

Check this out.

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In terms of the snow over the Northeast and interior Mid-Atlantic, here’s what the GFS has.

While unlikely to accumulate, the model still has snow showers over parts of southern New York, PA, western Maryland and a large portion of West Virginia.

Here’s the latest look at forecasted low temperatures in coming nights.

Sun night

Mon night

Notice the widespread area of 25 or below. If this was to occur, some spots would likely dip into the teens. An unprecidented event for this late in the year!

Plenty Of Heat To Speak Of Too!

While most may be focusing on the cold and as extreme as it is, there is also a lot of heat spreading into the heart of the nation over the next few days too. The heat is on over the Desert Southwest first but as we progress through Sunday and into Monday, 90s will spread across the Rockies and out onto the Plains. The ridge is aiding in forcing arctic air out of Canada down into the Southeast US.

Let the surge of heat begin.. Denver, CO should make it to 90 for the first time this year on Sunday while the first 90s reach central South Dakota, possibly even edging into southern North Dakota Monday afternoon. While it may have snowed in Minneapolis this morning, the first 90 should reach the Twin Cities by Tuesday.

Here’s the latest GFS temperature forecast for Sunday, Monday and Tuesday.

Sun

Mon

Tue

The warmth eventually spreads into the East late next week but what about the longer term pattern, when will it finally warm up and stay warm?

A Look At The Rest Of May & June

Unfortunately the rest of May and even into early June is looking largely cool in the East after the surge of warmth later next week while it stays warmer than normal in the West. The positive PNA and negative NAO signal supports the higher liklihood of Eastern troughiness late this month which will be aided to a degree by the increasingly wet soils over the Ohio Valley. Those wet soils may well moderate any heat trying to spread across the Plains into the East this summer.

As stated in my summer forecast which you can read at the top of the homepage, I don’t believe this summer will be particularly hot in the Northeast and though there will be hot days, I don’t see 100s this year from Philly up to Boston. Overall it may end up below average temperature wise and wetter than normal while this summer could be a long and hot one from California to Colorado.

Here’s the latest CFSv2 temperatures for week 1, 2, 3 and 4

Week 1-2

In a way I don’t agree with this CFSv2 for week’s 1 and 2 as I think it’s too warm in the East but I do agree with the cooler look in week 3, below.

Week 3-4

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Tags: Cold US May, June Forecast, record May cold, US June forecast, US Long Range Forecast