The next 4-7 day period is looking rather unsettled over Northwest Europe with the models suggesting another 1-2 inches of additional rain through the next 72 hours across the northern half of Ireland, much of Northern Ireland and the western half of the UK with greatest amounts over Southwest Scotland and western Wales. Through the next 192 hours the GFS suggests a total of 2-3 inches of rain. The negative NAO signal is kicking in with the trough dropping 2 to 3 areas of low pressure down from the NW.

Although we may have a trough and low pressure train back in play through this weekend and much of next week, there is some good news. It’s not all doom and gloom. We will still see sunshine, albeit there will be plenty of showers around too. With a trough or low pressure in place, either side of those frontal systems which swing through, there should be plenty of dry slots which present sunshine oppertunities, however with the strong mid-May sunshine, comes enhanced instability and so heavy, thundery showers may never been far away.

The next 72 hour period through Sunday looks to see at least two more precip bands which will work across Ireland with a focus on particularly the northern and central UK.

Below is the NCEP GFS precip total for the next 72 hours.

We’re reaching that time of year also that as these fronts swing across a warming Europe, rainfall rates increase and certainly through the next 192 hours, the GFS suggests a lot of rain over the Alps, northern Iberia and SE parts of Europe.

Here are the GFS precip totals for the next 192 hours.

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Flooding could well be an issue for parts of Europe this weekend into next week.

As for the upper pattern, there are hints of brief ridging in between lows. Any sort of ridge with sunshine to be had and you heat up. Don’t be surprised to see warmth in between wet and windy spells next week.

Here’s the latest ECMWF upper chart for next week.

By Monday, the first brief ridge appears

However, take a look at this for Tuesday!

The mid week period looks particularly unsettled with a spell of heavy rain and strong winds followed by an increased potential of widespread, heavy thundery downpours as the large and fairly cold upper low sits overhead. Sunshine may well warm the surface but with cold air above, the lapse rate in significant and therefore strong upward motion could trigger thunderstorms.

By Thursday, there is indication of some sort of southerly flow. Could we see some warm ridging towards LATE next week perhaps?

Some of the more recent runs of the ECMWF has been hinting at the beast of an upper low heading south with a warming SE flow drawing warmer air from the Med and southern and central Europe up towards the UK.

Finally, here’s next Saturday and you can see what I mean.

The NAO remains on a downward and ultimately cooler trend through the remainder of May as forecasted. Any ridging will be short lived but I’m optimistic that we could see another 1-2 spells of warmth before months end, despite the pattern looking more trough dominated.

In tomorrow afternoon/evening’s post I may throw up the first LONG RANGE model runs for NEXT WINTER and do a brief discussion on what I am thinking as well as an update on how this summer’s looking. Afterall I did say that what rains fall in spring, can have a major impact on the upcoming summer and it certainly is looking rather wet over the next 7 days.

Hope your liking the new website, let me know what you think of it… Should have a new video player on the site next week, so there is more exciting changes to come to the new and improved markvoganweather.com

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