This April will be one many of us remember for a very long time, especially those living in the Northern Plains where spring has yet to arrive, although it will over the next 24 hours! This April has set astonishing all-time records for snowiest month in cities well familiar with snow, Duluth and Rapid City with over 1,000 daily snow records set in just the last 22 days, a mere 195 was set for the same period last year. There has been countless cold records set from the Rockies right across to the East Coast and all the way to the Gulf Coast.

As well as being a cold past 2 months, it’s also been exceptionally wet. Check out these rainfall departures from normal.

The amount of cold this March through April has likely thwarted what has been a near none existant severe weather season and if modeling is correct on May then this quiet year could well continue.

Here’s the CFSv2 temperature forecast anomaly for May.

[s2If current_user_can(access_s2member_level1)]

Notice it sees a below normal month right down across the South and with the amount of moisture within those soils across the Midwest combined with a negative NAO through at least the first half of May, this supports more cool than warm with an eastern trough from the Northern Plains to Florida and therefore the dynamics aren’t there so much for big severe weather outbreaks. Yes, we’ll see severe outbreaks but I personally am not seeing anything big in the longer term and really with what we’ve seen and the amount of cold still holding over Canada where the snowpack remains unusually extensive, there’s a good chance we see more abnormal cold down the Plains and across the East through next week and into the first half of May.

With the cold April we’ve seen, possibly one of the coldest in US history, expecially across the Northern Tier and with May looking cool, there is similarities between this spring and 2004 and 2005 which both had quiet severe weather seasons with an uptick in activity in May but still was subpar.

The concern is that those cool May’s with troughiness continuing to drive cool air into the East, although helped to produce a low tornado count, the hurricane season both those year’s was unbelievable and the SST’s out in the tropical Atlantic this year is similar, especially to 2005 which this year compares to when it comes to the low tornado count this year.

Here are current SST’s

Here’s the same period back in 2005.

Notice the abnormal warmth both this year and back in 2005 extending from the African coast to Lesser Antilles with cool waters near the US. Opposite of last year because a lot of heat was focused well to the north last year, whereas this year, a lot of cold across the North has focused the warming down over the tropical breeding grounds. This folks sets the stage for a big year I’m affraid.

More later.

[/s2If][s2If is_user_logged_in() AND current_user_cannot(access_s2member_level1)]

That’s it, [s2Get constant=”S2MEMBER_CURRENT_USER_DISPLAY_NAME” /]!

[warning]To continue reading, you need to have a valid subscription to access premium content exclusive to members. Please join a subscription plan if you would like to continue.[/warning][/s2If][s2If !is_user_logged_in()]

Sign in to read the full forecast…

Not yet a member? Join today for unlimited access

Sign up to markvoganweather.com today to get unlimited access to Mark Vogan’s premium articles, video forecasts and expert analysis.
[/s2If]