A few Friday evening thoughts.

We could have quite the temperature swing coming up over the next 7 days as the NAO signal flips from positive to negative and that means a sudden shift from warm to late season cold with hill snow.

As expected both of today’s runs of the ECMWF show what I’ve said yesterday and throughout this week about the warmth over North America being kicked out into the Atlantic and being transported on the nose of a fast moving jet stream across towards the UK, pumping the developing ridge from Iberia northwards.

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Note in the below charts the high and much warmer 850 temps covering the southern half of the UK. This scenario would provide a large temperature spread with a struggle to hit 10C over northern Scotland but it’s likely to soar into the low 20s across the South. I believe this ridge will be shown stronger over the UK in coming days as the models see the warmth to the south and more of a positive NAO with a deeper North Atlantic trough.

Here’s the latest look at next Tuesday and Wednesday..

Wednesday

This warmth doesn’t last though as the -NAO signal quickly returns by next weekend as a large high migrates from Newfoundland up towards Greenland.

By late week into next weekend, the chill coming down could be quite significant.

Here’s the latest charts for next Friday into the weekend. Mountain snows are likely to return!

Next Friday

Saturday

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