Next week remains a forecasting headache and there’s nothing clear cut. Again I use the teleconnection between North America and W Europe and how, even with this upcoming period, the warmth currently over the eastern United States needs to be watched as it gets forced out into the Atlantic thanks to a storm crossing the country. It’s as this warm air gets driven northeastwards from the US up against the jet that we see the jet stream excellerate as the thermal gradient sharpens greatly with cold air coming off Greenland.

This excelleration of the jet, transports the warmth that is currently over the eastern US across the Atlantic fast. What will be interesting to see is whether these ‘warm parcels of air’ driven along the underside of the side can influence the developing high over Spain, France and up towards the UK mid next week. These #speed maxs’ containing warm air and raising the thermal gradient, can force height rises underneath and can build ridges further north than expected. If that happens and arguably supported by the +NAO, then we here in the UK would have a far milder or warmer mid week period than most ever thought.

Rather than doing a long winded written post, I’m wanting you to look at the below charts which I showed on the video.

Sun 21

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Mon 22

Tue 23

 

Fri 26

Sun 28

You’ll notice by late next week a high coming off eastern Canada migrates towards Greenland, the classic NEGATIVE NAO signal once again. This will teleconnect with a deepening eastern North America and western Europe trough once again.

The chill returns and the period between April 24-30 looks pretty cold. Check out the below temp anomalies over central and eastern NA and particularly the UK and Ireland.

Here’s the latest NAO/AO ensemble

Note the spike before the tanking, that is why I stand by my warm idea for the UK mid next week. I could be wrong with this but want to see you more than just a model run. I try to get you to look much deeper into the mechanics of the atmosphere and what’s possible..

NAO

AO

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