For weeks now it’s been all about the strongly negative NAO/AO which has delivered our persistent cold but finally the ensembles are showing the opposite with a fairly sharp rise into positive territory and this will support the opposite teleconnection which has setup up beautifully of late between eastern North America and western Europe. In other words, instead of twin troughs on either side of the pond, it’s going to be all about twin ridges and ultimately warmer weather pushing up from the south, yay!!

Like i’ve said often of late, given the pattern, watch what’s going on over eastern North America because, what they’re experiencing, we are likely to see a few days later and with the flip in the indexes and upper steering flow, the same applies now. What the eastern US saw in recent days with the warmth, look out 2-4 days later and we should see similar.. though not as extreme.

Check this out…

[s2If current_user_can(access_s2member_level1)]

We of course saw the first 90F or 32C high in Washington yesterday with near 90 all the way up towards the NYC suburbs but it’s as this ridge now pushes out into the Atlantic, will we get in on some much needed and well earned warmth this weekend. As that ridge slides off North America, it deepens the trough over the N Atlantic and as a result, a ridge will get pumped downwind. We will be under the influence of the ridging and a strong southwest flow by Sunday and although it stays unsettled in the west, temps will still rise, further east in sheltered parts where sunshine along with some downsloping gets involved, don’t be surprised to see 21 to 23C Sunday afternoon anywhere from London up towards S Yorkshire.

Even with a nearer neutral NAO, this would support just as good of a chance of ridging as troughiness as that stone has now been rolled out from the North Atlantic and thus the west-east upper flow is now moving. A near neutral NAO in my opinion would likely bring spells of cool and unsettled, along with spelkls of warmer, more settled weather, however. IF that above chart is correct, then what’s coming this weekend in terms of warmth, may be outdone by warmer with the next surge of warmth.

If you read my post from last night, I made mention of another potential ridge lifting north over the UK next weekend. Given the latest NAO ensemble, that looks even more likely and with that next surge of warmth, we may very well see warmer still.

As stated way back.. IF we get a swing from strong negative to strong positive, look out, within the span of 1-3 weeks, we may go from winter, right to summer.

Here’s the latest chart for this Sunday.. Ridge is a little weaker than last night but heights and 850 temps will be up in future runs.

Sun

Mon

After more unsettled, cooler weather into next week. Look out for the next ridge coming next weekend! First 21C+ reading coming for Scotland, possibly mid-20s for the South of England.

Next Fri

Next Sat

As said in recent posts also, I’m expecting the NAO to go back negative towards the end of April into May and this could well support a cooler period once again but the focus will remain on a drier than normal pattern all the way towards June.

[/s2If][s2If current_user_is(s2member_level0)]

Join a subscription plan, [s2Get constant=”S2MEMBER_CURRENT_USER_DISPLAY_NAME” /]!

[warning]You do not have a valid subscription to access premium content exclusive to members. You will need to join a subscription plan if you would like to continue.[/warning][/s2If][s2If !is_user_logged_in()]

Sign in to read the full forecast…

Not yet a member? Start your 7 day free trial

Create your free markvoganweather.com account today to get unlimited access to Mark Vogan’s premium articles, video forecasts and expert analysis for 7 days.
[/s2If]