Although we have more cold nights to come through the rest of this week into the weekend and perhaps even extending into early next week, the emphesis now turns to next week’s return to a much more typical Atlantic driven pattern for the UK and Ireland with rain bearing, much milder southwest winds as we loose the persistent block to our north.

The break down of high pressure to our north will not only shut down the persistent easterly flow which have transported unusually cold air in from Scandinavia and Russia but it will allow the supressed jet stream to lift back north giving Spain and Portugal a break from the bombardment of weather we’re typically use to. While we’ve endured our coldest March in 51 years, Spain has endured it’s wettest March in some 60 years, no surprise given the jet stream must go somewhere and where else other than down to our south when you get the type of blocking we’ve seen.

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As stated already, we’ll gradually see this pattern break down through the upcoming weekend, so it will stay cold but in that sunshine and out of the wind, you’ll notice a warmer feel to things. Nights under clear skies still get cold.

By the time we reach Tuesday of next week, the tide turns and we start to see a southwesterly develop, bringing in warmer air from the Azores and along with it, RAIN, something Highland Scotland is desperate to see these days. Did you see the pictures off the BBC of the 600+ hectre grass fore burning just north of Fort William?

Here’s the GFS surface/precipitation chart through Friday and as you can see there’s little change with a high to the north, low to the south and a ENE flow continuing to pull in cold air from the continent. With this high building in through the weekend, light winds and sunshine by day will make it feel very nice and spring-like but nights could be very cold in areas.

Friday pressure

Fri precip

While even early next week is rather uneventful, the upper level steering flow is dramatically changing as the high shifts, this will pull the jet north and by Tuesday, an area of low pressure will creep closer to the SW UK and will sweep a cold front in from the west bringing a band of heavy rain along with strong SSW winds. It will feel dramatically milder with this major pattern change next week.

Check out these pressure and precip charts for Tuesday onwards.

Tue pressure (134 hr)

Tue precip (134 hr)

138 hr

If that chart above is correct, that could be quite the soaking.

As for the milder flow, check out strong SOUTHWEST flow. Initial 850s arent overly mild as you can see from the 168 hr but they should warmer air pulling north by 180 hrs.

180 hr

As stated in last night’s post. Given the return to a positive NAO/AO signal, I stand by the idea i’ve had now for nearly a month, that we should be keeping an eye of ‘building ridges’ during the second half of April which may present us with a warm spell. If you haven’t already read last night’s post and watch the video.

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