While spring-like warmth takes a decent shot at the Upper Midwest Saturday with highs nearing 50 all the way to Minneapolis and the low 60s for Chicago, unfortunately this is going to be a brief tease as another shot of healthy arctic air dives south from Canada during Easter Sunday. Both Midwest cities will see 25 to 30 degree drops from Saturday to Sunday.

If you live in Texas, look out for rain with some severe thunderstorm development as low pressure over the Southern Plains lifts a warm front north in an attempt to draw warm, moist air up from the Gulf. I say an attempt because dew points won’t be exceptionally high with 50s for Dallas, low 60s for Houston. I blame a colder than normal second half of winter which has allowed the Gulf waters to cool and by doing so they will have limited warmth and moisture for a time before strong warming can take place and so severe weather will be confined mainly to hail and gusty winds. Yes there will be severe storms and probably some decent showers but the tornado threat will be limited.

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The good news for the South and Southeast from Texas to the Carolinas is that it warms back up after a cold past couple of weeks.

Interestingly with this warm-up that has bathed much of the US in nearer ‘normal’ late March temps but for many, still falling short, this has allowed a very steep decline in nation-wide snow cover. According to WGN-TV’s Tom Skilling, as much as 46% of the snow has melted with the beginning of the week nearly at 50% which is very impressive for late in March. Incidentally, Canada at the same time was very close to 100% covered which is rather unusual. Here’s a chart back on Tuesday, March 26th which shows only southern Sask, parts of Nova Scotia and far eastern Newfoundland bare, amazingly the rest of this vast land area was white.

Indeed with warmer, even record warmth over Western Canada, the snow melt has been fairly significant in recent days across the west.

So, while Saturday sees a front swing southeast into Texas, rains break out across the South and Southeast but it’s the second ARCTIC front which dives into the Dakotas, Minnesota Iowa and Illinois that will be very noticable and may present the coldest April Fools day is some 20 years. Many cities across the Mid-Mississippi Valley from Kansas City to St Louis up as far as Des Moines which experienced 80s last April 1st, may see upper 30s to low 40s this year.

Minneapolis is likely to only reach freezing during Monday with a low Mon into Tues perhaps dipping to near 10 degrees. Further north and lows dip subzero territory. Chicago will reach 34 to 36 degrees with lows dipping into the teens by night.

Indianapolis, IN may only reach the upper 30s and so this may end up being the coldest April 1st on record for here and other Lower Midwest cities.

Here’s the 850mb chart for early Tues.

 

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