I’ve made mention of the 2009-10 winter throughout this season and was first highlighted back in autumn as my key analog to this winter. I gave my reasons as to why I believed this winter would be like 2009-10 with mild spells but always interupted by spells of winter with the SECOND half of the season being dominated more by cold than mild. I stated my concern with February and even into March as winter may not want to let go just like it didn’t back in February and March of 2010.

Did you enjoy the spring tease yesterday? I hope you made the most of it.

I have also been stating for the best part of a week to 10 days now that given the indexes and what was going on in eastern Asia (Japan) as well as the US, it was only a matter of time before winter fought back here over the UK and Europe. It wasn’t the daily models but the indexes which told me to tell you, not to hang up your winter gear just yet. A special end to the season is looking likely and whether it comes in the form of the cold air for March in 10-20+ years or a blockbuster snowfall remains to be seen.

This is the evidence which told me to look out.. Not the models, but the AO/NAO index and the wild weather experienced elsewhere over the NH.

AO

NAO

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While it’s a damp, dreary and unsettled theme over the next several days, the general consenses with the models all now point to a ‘significant’ return of winter next week with a heck of a cold air mass coming down. This is something I have been warning you of for a good week now and sure enough you get everyone jumping onto the bandwagon once the models become obvious. I always say, anyone can read a model. Those who do tend to chop and change the their forecasts constantly. I can be stubborn but when I make a call on something, it’s based on far greater aspects and not just a model. This interesting endgame to winter was highlighted back in October last year, long before modelling showed anything.

What’s impressing me more and more is the depth and intensity of the air mass coming down. The ECMWF sure is getting bolder with the colder!

Hope you haven’t been fooled by the recent spring-like warmth? Get your mind set out of the summer theme, we head straight back to mid-January next week…

138 hrs

144 hrs

174 hrs

192 hrs

Will have more on this tomorrow!

Be sure to watch the video below.

Interesting article

Central Europe, Scandinavia Brace For Worst March Temperature Plummet Since 1987!

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