The rather benign, quiet UK pattern continues and will do so into early next week but the change we all know is inevitable, arrives probably Tuesday as our high pressure slides east into Europe, allowing low pressure and fronts to push back in from the west.

I will make no secret though, this is the type of pattern where it can be hard to bring you something new, interesting and exciting when we get into a very quiet pattern of neither here nor there but that may be about to change. The thing is, we have managed to dry out considerably and seeing some of those earliest of spring rays can make you feel pretty good.

So, rain and wind returns next week but is that it for winter weather, afterall March can be cold and snowy with some of wildest winter weather I’ve experienced has come in March. While the ECMWF backed away from a return to cold next week, it has come back to the cold theme by the later in it’s 10 day deterministic model run. While quiet now, I am not convinced winter is entirely done with us just yet despite the fact we’re into meteorological spring. The AO is tanking into the lowest levels of the entire season and with the NAO negative, despite the block being more favourable for North America and not Europe just now, that could change!

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I tweeted earlier today about the wild and fickle nature of March. This is a transitionary month and it’s a time when the atmosphere begins that seasonal change and change which can bring wild weather as warmer air begins to build to the south but cold air, though slowly shrinking with shorter wavelengths, tends to want to fight back. This years end-game winter pattern is certainly one where you cannot say it’s over till it’s over! Just look at the wild US pattern these days. I wrote a while back about the potential for a MAJOR snow event during February or March over the Eastern US and yes, here in the UK too which could break winter. Next week could see a major snowstorm for the US Mid-Atlantic, the very area which has missed out this winter. We too here in the UK and Western Europe should pay close attention and not let our guards down as this winter is going to try and fight on. Whether it stays on the other side of the pond or tries to fight back here too remains to be seen and believe me when I say, though the model has lost sight of the cold next week, the cold idea is showing up again. Only time will tell.

We only have to go back to March 2010, at the end of a wild winter for much of the UK when lows plunged to -18C in the Highlands and in stark contrast, just last year, we saw record breaking warmth again, in the Highlands where Aboyne, Aberdeenshire soared to 23C, Scotland’s warmest ever March day. This one may have come in like a lamb but don’t let your guard down till it’s over and nothing happened. There is no sign of anything particularly wild through the next 5 days except for the return of wind and rain but perhaps we need to look out at mid-month and beyond 7 days for some colder weather returning. The latest ECMWF brings very cold air back into Europe between days 5-10.

Check out these 850mb temps off the ECMWF at the end of the 10 day run. Wow! Certainly the strong negatives in both AO and NAO would say this is very possible. Wouldn’t surprise me if the US gets slammed next week and then after, we get hit for one last time..

216 hour

240 hour

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