There is plenty of cold and for some, snow over the Eastern US just now and mid week, the Mid-Atlantic region may see their biggest snow of the winter. The significant ‘blocking’ pattern currently is favourable for US cold and snow but while we here in the UK will see the return of mild, wet and windy this week, the fact the AO is tankiing into it’s deepest negative of the entire winter and the NAO holds negative, this suggests that winter is likely to make one last come back to Europe. Anyone can read a model and tell you what it’s saying and yes we all can see the ECMWF bringing back the cold midmonth, however, what I would say to you is, does the global parameters support the ECMWF’s idea of this return of winter to Britain. The answer is yes. Long before this model showed what it’s now showing, I’ve said many times that this winter is one which which will try to fight on and given the trend of the past 10 months and what the AO/NAO is currently, you would be foolish to have thought winter weather was over, despite the return of wet, mild weather.

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This years pattern is one which can deliver a ‘significant’ snow event, an event which can snap winter and bring on spring. A fight takes place next weekend and beyond with low pressure continuing to try and push warm, moist air into the UK while a deepening trough over Scandinavia tries to push cold, arctic air in from the northeast. This would be the perfect setup to bring that snowstorm. See video below for more.

What the ECMWF is hinting at for midmonth over Europe and the UK, proves what I’ve been saying. I said right back last October that February was a month which could bring plenty of winter and even March could bring it’s fair share of fun and games and a pattern which suggests winter doesn’t want to let go. The 2009-10 analog has been used heavily this winter with similarities in SST’s and the ENSO and sure enough, the second half of this winter has been worst. When you got the depth of negative within the indexes like we currently have, we would be lucky to get away with a mild month.

Here is the latest ECMWF for late in the 10 day deterministic run. Rather cold looking right?

192 hrs

240 hrs

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