As well as the much cloudier skies, did you notice the colder feel with increase in breeze over eastern parts of the UK today? The cold front pushes through overnight but it was weak with little or no precipitation associated with it. The reason for the lack of precip with this front is simply because it’s drawing our from a dry source region. Of course it would have been a different story had that same front came in from the west, never mind it would have been milder.

The main aspect to this evenings post is the level of cold settling in for the close of this week and particularly through the weekend. This could be one of the colder pushes of air we’ve had yet with about as cold of 850 temperatures as I’ve seen all winter. This will also be the most sustained settled spell in the best part of a year also.

Sunshine by day, clear skies by night will promote some very cold temperatures UK-wide and by this weekend, many of us may have a hard time even hitting freezing. Lows by night may widely drop to between -4 and -8C away from towns and cities, especially this weekend.

As for next week, the huge cold upper low will sink south of the UK while a mild ridge builds over top. This, like we just had, should support fairly mild days at between 5-10C but under clear, settled skies by night, frosts will be common. The cold nights may keep temperatures down by day but all in all, we are looking at a sustained spell with little or no rain on the horizon for the next week or so. This is very interesting for when looking at the longer term.

Check out these VERY COLD 850 temps over the UK for later Saturday according to the GFS

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To clarify, this chart suggests -5 to -10C at 5,000ft across all of Britain with an area of -10 to -15C over southern England. If there was to be clear skies and light enough winds, this cold, suspended not that high above the ground could sink down to the surface and bring a heck of a cold night to the interior South. Say -5 to -10C. While that is unlikely, highs Saturday may struggle to even reach freezing in the South given this level of cold aloft.

While you may think that’s overdone, here’s the ECMWF for the same period.

Almost identical.

Here’s the setup looking into next week. Looking great if you need your washing dried outdoors!

Mon

Wed

Sorry for the shortness of tonight’s post but really we are entering a pretty quiet pattern.

More tomorrow.

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