It’s been talked about here for nearly a week now and before the previous cold ended that the return of cold would come back once again within a week and while I have ‘forecasted’ this cold, the snow aspect was more an alluding to potential and not so much a forecast. However I have been pushing the idea of something brewing towards the end of this winter. A snow event which could actually snap this winter and break us into spring. The idea of some sort of ‘major’ snow is based upon similar types of winters and the pattern of the winter end game. These ideas are not based on any model I am seeing. I stand by the idea that we should let our guard down. Just because it’s nearing the later of February and days are becoming longer with a higher sun angle, just wait till the end of this week and you’ll think we’re right back to mid winter.

The models have been incredibly persistent in bringing back cold continental air to the UK with a return to mid-winter conditions from the Ukraine to UK. This marks the 5th cold spell of this winter and like I’ve made mention of before, we’ve gotten off lightly when it comes to cold I think. In terms of snowfall, it’s been a decent year. For those who love cold as well as snow, it’s just a shame we couldn’t have gotten settled weather over that widespread snowpack.

This time around it looks like it’s just plain cold with heavy, laden skies and a stiff wind blowing across the North Sea from a cold continent. There looks to be minimal snow for all areas of the UK with persistent some scattered snow showers for eastern parts as icy winds blow across the sea and collect some moisture but the trouble is, at this later stage in winter, those waters are slightly colder and so the conditions of cold winds blowing over water is less conductive. Had it been earlier in winter with a slightly warmer North Sea, then we could have been talking some decent sea-effect snowfall.

I did of course mention back last week and during the weekend about a possible system riding the easterly flow around the Scandinavian high which could bring significant snows across central and western Europe, perhaps jumping the channel and North Sea, bringing a substantial snow event to the Southeast, however, there is no evidence to support any surface feature and so there’s minimal moisture. That upper low appears to dive from Germany towards Iberia.

So, in a nutshell, 98% of Britain is not going to see snow or even precipitation through the next 5 days, perhaps even through this weekend and into next week (although the GFS, below shows somewhat more snow over the UK by Sunday), anything that does come about will be in the form of sea-effect snow showers blowing into eastern parts and not system snow.

While there’s no snow. It sure is going to be cold, especially in that wind.

I have no doubts that by the end of this week, many of us will see cold, frosty nights with days having a hard time getting much above 1-3C.

Here’s the latest GFS snow chart through the next 114 hours.

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By 144 you can see the model picking up on more light snow coverage over the UK. By this weekend, high pressure sits close by to the north of Scotland with winds driving bitterly cold air straight out of Norway and Sweden. What may be interesting is whether the model is seeing moisture being picked up as colder air flowing south, picks up moisture off a long fetch of the North Sea. This may be splitting hairs but I’m trying to figure out what the GFS sees more snow over the UK while there’s no system to deliver.

Might Not Be Much Snow For UK But Southern France, Spain?

Notice the across the Alps as well as pver southern France and into Spain, this is that low dragging both moisture and cold air across this region.

This could be a very interesting situation for southern France and a large portion of Spain as both ECMWF and GFS have a surface low with good upper level support, driving some very cold air right into Iberia. Could we be looking at headline grabbing snows this weekend over Southwest Europe perhaps? Heck of a way to end this winter right?

Let’s have a look at the GFS 850 temperatures through late week and this weekend.

72 hrs

Can I just say, without appearing to hype things up with this next shot of arctic air, those 850 temps the GFS are portraying by Thursday would e the coldest of this winter so far at between -10 and -15C. Note the blocking high in the classic -NAO position with a cold high centred over southern Norway, perfect for delivering bitterly cold winds into the UK and across Europe.

114 hrs

By Saturday, though it appears the cold aloft lessons, it’s merely spreading out, covering more ground and penetrating deeper into southwestern Europe en-route to Spain and it’s an upper low which is pulling this cold down. Note the majority of Britain is beneath -5 to -10C air at 5,000ft with a NE wind keeping things nice and cold. Saturday could be a particularly cold day with sub-freezing highs and with any breeze blowing out of the northeast, it will feel bitter to say the least.

144 hrs

Check out that chart above for Sunday. Notice the all of France and Spain is beneath a blanket of -5 to -10 850 temps, wow! Now this could bring pretty widespread snows and a headline grabbing snow event to much of Iberia and southern France.

The question many of you may be asking or are about to ask, when does spring arrive..

Check out the NAO ensemble.

Though it’s tough to say how long exactly this upcoming cold will last.. If I was to hazard a guess id say it will last for a good week! The NAO is turning negative and looks to stay that way for the remainder of February. So, even if this cold spell ends quicker than I think.. don’t write this winter off too quickly as there is a decent chance that we may see moderating cold spells linger into the first half of March. Remember what I keep saying about this end game snow event. We could well end this winter with a cold spell, perhaps during the first couple of weeks of March. I think March could open in the traditional fashion.. in like a lion but during the second half of the month, we should begin to see spring’s arrival quite widely with a mild, dry April on tap.

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