The past 36 hours has been somewhat benign weather a lingering frontal system bringing a rather gloomy day for much of the UK. There was in fact some snow across southern parts early today. However, things will go down hill through tonight into tomorrow as a more active front advances towards the UK from the west, as it nears, it slows and a new low will form. As this forms, it will sink slowly southeastwards and by doing so, the anti-clockwise flow around this low will pull cold continental air into the UK.

Over the next 12 hours, expect a band of rain top spread into Northern Ireland, Ireland, Wales and Southwest England, unfortunately this will turn heavy and persistent with rain totals perhaps topping an inch before we reach midday Sunday. Flooding will be an issue, however, as we progress through tomorrow afternoon, as the northwest to southeast boundary tries to push further east, rain will turn to snow. How much snow depends upon where you are and really this is making for a tricky forecast as there is no uniform band of snow expected. It will be sporadic. Some will get nothing, others may see 2 or 3 inches. The area generally from Kent, up through the Midlands and into eastern Scotland appear most likely to see some snow and while western areas may see some too, the chances are slightly less.

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Here’s the latest GFS 6-hourly snow accumulation chart valid through Monday.

 (Above image COURTESY/OWNED BY WEATHERBELL MODELS)

As you can see, while the GFS has many parts of the UK receiving snow, you notice the concentration of snow is generally from London to through the heart of England with a bullseye over North Wales and the Pennines. The Southern Uplands and Grampians get a good covering. This of course is just one model.

After this system clears Monday, a drier spell settles in briefly before another Atlantic system is seen to try and push in from the west by Wednesday and with a cold easterly flow keeping things on the cold side, any moisture pushing into this cold air looks likely to turn to snow. The model last night was very bold on bringing major snowfall to many parts of the UK.

I alluded to the possibly of a bigger snow event late next week in last night’s post, lets take a look at how the GFS is looking today on that idea.

Here comes the front on Wednesday!

Here’s the GFS snow forecast

You can see that by Thursday there is some pretty decent snow over the UK as the boundary slams up against the cold air. Remember that cold easterly wind blowing from late tomorrow right up until the next front arrives. That front will hit up against a wall of cold air!

How’s the snow depth looking following the first snow event tomorrow into Monday?

That’s a pretty healthy looking snowpack, especially across the heart of England, Southern Uplands and Grampian.

And for the system Wednesday-Thursday?

Well that’s a fairly decent snowcover if this plays out.

This fits with my long term ideas for the mid part of February which was first highlighted in detail way back during mid-January. This falls into the idea that this winter once it gets going would have similarities to 2009-10 though not as severe. Cold would be dominant but that didn’t mean mild could sneek in from time to time. Look back at the past week. Snow and cold to start, then a few days of milder but the cold and snow is coming right back in. Tomorrow and Wednesday-Thursday’s system could bring substantial snowfall to parts of the UK and the cold that surrounds this, means no warm-up in sight for now.

BTW, the NAO is going negative and the AO is already negative, this means the cold should persist through much of the rest of this month with March looking likely to bring further spells of winter. [/s2If][s2If current_user_is(s2member_level0)]

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