Recap Of Winter So Far, Outlook For Remainder Of February (Includes HD Video!)

Written by Mark Vogan on February 10, 2013 in United Kingdom & Ireland with 0 Comments

Courtesy of Mark Vogan

This winter in my opinion has been very much dominated by shots of mild and shots of cold. Although many, particularly across Ireland may be dissapointed with this winter, I would ask you to look at things from the bigger picture. Lets look at what this winter’s pattern has acheived and what’s going on right now.First of all, lets recap!The first 10 days of December started the first month of winter off cold but there was a lack of snow. Europe on the other hand had a significant blast of winter weather. Following those first 10-13 days of December, it remained mild into early January with tremedous rains once again. Around Christmas and New Year, the major stratospheric warming event took place and I told you ahead of most about the impending blast of winter coming. As I sat waiting from my my to New Jersey, I posted about the fact that 8 days from then, a blast of snow and cold would arrive. This did happen and for about 2 weeks, much of the UK had snow on the ground.

Yes I appreciate any of you coming back at me and saying, well Mark I didn’t have any snow. Neither did I. We had nothing while a large chunk of Northern Ireland, much of Scotland, England and Wales had 3-6 inches of snow of the ground and while it’s tough to get a widespread covering and exceptionally rare to get the coverage we did back in December 2010. When it comes to meteorology, it’s all about looking at the big picture and the overall pattern, what’s it’s done, doing and will do.

The cold broke in the later part of January but remember what happened? There was a sizeable snowstorm to end the cold spell which blocked the M6 and forced people to stay in their cars overnight. About 7 days later, after a parade of wind and rain storms which, like we saw back at the close of the December cold spell.. that would be it for winter. Winter returned fast and 7-8 days later we saw yet more snow and ever since that quick turn back to colder, the pattern has leaned more towards snowy precip rather than rain.

[s2If current_user_can(access_s2member_level1)]

Winter Was Based On 2009-10

I recall one comment by a person in Northern Ireland who said how rubbish this winter has been. I would have to dissagree with them. Please look outwith your back garden. I do appreciate those who live in coastal areas which have barely seen a thing. However in the law of climatic probabilities, your far less likely to see snow anyway I’m affraid.

I never said that this winter would be extreme like in 2009-10 or the first part of 2010-11. Those were extreme causes. However, what I did state was that there would be similarities to 2009-10 with frequent spells of winter weather and yes there was POTENTIAL to see a few blasts of good old fashioned winter.

Here we are today and yet again it’s snowing across a good part of England, Wales, Scotland and likely Northern Ireland, lets not forget what’s happened already. If your paying attention, I think you’ll agree that the second half to this winter is worse than the first.

The foundation to my forecast was based around global SST’s, the ENSO status and the trend of the NAO/AO through 2012. These factors played into my conclusion long before this winter began, that yes, would would have spells of mild like we saw in 2009-10, afterall we don’t live in Moscow and even there, it’s not always cold.. but we would see spells of cold and snow throughout winter and instead of seeing initial cold and then a turn around New Year, to a mild January, February and March, or the mere 10 day blast of winter last year and that was it.. The winter of 2012-13, like in 2009-10 would see spells of cold and snow each month of the winter. That has happened and will continue to happen.

Severity in terms of cold hasn’t been bad this year but there’s no deneying that there has been repeat snow events this winter and the mild spells are far shorter so far during this second half to winter.

While it is just as dissapointing for me as it is you, that this snow isn’t really hanging around, it’s what the atmosphere is telling us. It wants to stay cold and not mild. While the snows come and go, they return again. This winter is like a watered down version of 2009-10. Nowhere near as severe and cold spells are nowhere near as longlived but I never believed the idea that this winter would be like last. The global pattern was practically opposite last year.

So, what lies ahead?

More Snow For UK, Lots Coming To The Alps, Italy, Balkans Etc

It’s been a soaker of a day across Southwest England while further east and where the air is blowing in from the east, precip has fallen as snow and some of this may be accumulating and causing issues. Through tonight, southern, southeastern areas as well as up into the Midlands, snow may fall as well as an odd shower in eastern Scotland. This takes us into the Monday morning commute. The tail of this front is bring heavy snow to the French Alps as well as lower lying areas of southern France. Northern Spain is also seeing it snow too but this is nothing compared to what Alpine and southern Europe will see over the next 72 hours.

We’re currently in a cold but active pattern right now and as fronts swing into the cold air covering much of western and central Europe, heavy snows are breaking out, especially over higher ground.

As for the UK, once this front passes through, a spell of drier weather settles in Monday night through Tuesday with higher pressure building down from the north. Now that’s a cold high with a continued east wind.

With some lying snow around and clear skies by night, models are hinting at a few cold nights both Monday night into Tuesday and possibly Tuesday night into Wednesday.

Firstly, here’s the snow forecast off the GFS from now through later Monday.