I showed you last night the ECMWF upper charts and 850 temps, here’s what the latest GFS snow charts show for snow cover over Europe by Thursday AFTER a system pushes through. What I am fighting with here is how much snow do we get. I do believe there is enough cold air in place for some decent snows over central and eastern parts of Britain but how far west does it go? My dilema here is the 6-hourly snows from last night showed biggest accumulating snows over central and eastern areas with nothing in the west. However, in the current chart, the snow cover, after the system has exited, shows a western snow cover, not an eastern one.

The bain of my life, the fight between Atlantic and Arctic air continues. A lot will depend upon how much cold and how deep that cold air is over the country and how much the maritime air can erode this cold.

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Anyhow, here’s the latest snow depth chart off the GFS.

Thursday

Friday

Notice any lying snow is focused in the western UK, not the east!

Once the system has pushed through, we’ve got that northerly flow back, reinforcing the chill, though we never really do ‘warm-up’.

Here’s the 500mb heights for today. Note a nice cold northerly air flow pulling arctic air into the UK.

Here’s Friday after the frontal system pushes through. Note heights appearing to rise over the Northern UK. This is still a cold north flow though. Not a mild one.

 

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