I’m sure you’ll have noticed that wind out there today, feeling particularly raw that’s for sure. Although the air temperatures wasn’t that bad, it was the sting in the north wind which made it feel quite bitter. We have a direct discharge straight from the arctic. This flow tends to be fairly moisture starved and so we enjoyed plenty of sunshine with snow showers confined to the far north and eastern coastal areas from Aberdeenshire down to East Anglia. Those snow showers which may lay down a fresh covering overnight will weaken through the night with winds remaining fresh. Elsewhere, it’s a largely clear night with lighter winds and with plenty of cold in place, this sets the stage for a frosty, icy and frosty night throughout the UK.

As for Ireland, clouds increase through the night with a band of rain pushing in off the Atlantic and by 8am, rain shall have reached the east coast.

You may have seen my post from this morning which looked at the uncertainties I have regarding the snow situation tomorrow. Will it rain or snow and how much moisture will be involved? One thing to remember is the dryness of this arctic air mass in place. These set-ups can look good but then as the moisture enters the cold, dry environment, much of the moisture along the eastbound front gets evaporated.

While the immediate west coast of Scotland, NW England will see a rain-sleet mix, once you head 5-10 miles inland and the depth of cold within the column is deeper, then snow is likely. How much? This very much depends upon how much moisture is available.

Right now, it appears the front slows on approach to the UK and while the boundary crosses Ireland west to east fairly quickly, it slows as it feels the presence of the cold, dense air out in front. The coastal liquid precipitation and inland snows are likely to break out late Thursday afternoon. Lower elevations may see a dusting to as much as an inch while higher ground such as the West Highlands and western end of the Southern Uplands including the Ayrshire hills, may collect to a decenr 2, maybe 3 inches but it could well completely die as it pushes into the western mainland. The cold northerly flow of today, has been pushing arctic air in all day and so this will act as a giant absorber of any moisture. Central and eastern parts of the UK are unlikely to see anything.

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Here’s the latest ECMWF upper level pressure chart for Thursday with the GFS snow chart below.

Note the arctic flow continues tomorrow ahead of the eastbound weather system.

GFS snow at 30 hrs

As you can see from the below snow depth chart by 36 hours, there is little snow cover, except for western parts of the UK with a fairly decent snowpack developed over the Southern Uplands but this is from the system a couple of days ago too.

While the snows this model has for Ireland is overdone, it’s possible that some backedge snows develop after the front pushes through and the air cools. We may see a ‘surprise’ covering in places.

By Friday, the northerly flow continues and so does the cold theme. Any fresh snow covering western areas will help hold daytime highs on Friday close to freezing. Friday night into Saturday may be the coldest of the week with clear skies and light winds and over snow cover, expect lows dipping below -5C.

Next System May Bring A More Widespread Snow Chance Sunday

Below is the ECMWF upper level pressure chart for Friday and Saturday. Notice the chart tries to push the ridge into the northwest of the UK. This is the next Atlantic system pushing in. With cold not budging over the next 72 hours, another front, perhaps stronger than tomorrow’s will advance into the UK either late Saturday or early Sunday. This could bring a greater snow chance to a greater area of the UK.

Check out these GFS snow depth charts for Sunday and Monday!

Sunday

Monday

While the snowpack may not be anything particularly deep, the significance with all this is that the general theme is for cold overall and the ‘want for snow’ within the atmosphere. Very much like 2009-10.

Cold appears to hold well into next week. Will do a quick video later, looking at the pattern further down the road.

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