Last night was in fact the coldest night of winter for North Dakota and western Minnesota while cold extended all the way to New York City and down to the Sunshine State. Northern North Dakota and Minnesota endured the coldest air in the nation once again with lows in spots hovering at between -25 and -35 by daybreak but air temperatures were just half the story as winds gusting to over 20 mph out of the NW brought wind chills down below -40 in places. While cold but not as cold across the far north tonight, it will be a colder night than last from New York to Orlando as the arctic high continues to sink south. Below are forecasted lows off the GFS.

As the artic air continues to push south, temperatures are likely to reach 0 in the mountains of West Virginia, Virginia and possibly into North Carolina and Tennessee. I expect low 20s for Atlanta while the freezing mark could be met in Jacksonville up through Savannah and into Charleston, SC. The very areas which have enjoyed record breaking 80s of late.

The way the arctic air is coming south and bumping up and down the spine of the Appalachains, the core of cold never really gets into the coastal plain. However, Washington DC may find themselves shivering by morning if some of this arctic air manages to slosh over the mountains. Lows may creep towards 10 degrees by morning while Richmond drops into the upper teens and Charlotte, low 20s. Philadelphia, New York City and Boston, while cold, aren’t as bad at around 18-22 degrees for the low.

Interior North Flroida may even get into the mid 20s tonight!

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Here Come The Clippers!

While cold is one thing, the other story is the series of weak Alberta clippers which will ride a strong northerly flow presenting a wide corridor stretching from North Dakota all the way to the southern Appalachains with anywhere from an inch or two to as much as 10″ of snow tonight through Tuesday. Here’s the latest GFS snow depth chart by Wednesday morning after as many as 4 clipper-like disturbances pass.

Much of next week looks like but when looking out towards late week and beyond, models show ridging returning to the East once again. The next 20 days looks likely to see a back and forth between cold arctic air and milder air trying to spread east from the Deserts. There is certainly a war going on between the models and even forecasters these days.

I stand by the idea that there is plenty more winter down the road for the Eastern US given the persistency of the ensembles taking the AO and NAO back to negative along with keeping the PNA mainly positive. These indexes as well as the lower stratospheric warming theory all points to more winter ahead!

Here’s the ECMWF for next Saturday. Note the big trough and likely winter storm over the Southwest. More rain to come for LA, Las Vegas and Phoenix while the mountains gets another blast of snow.

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